By John Richardson THERE is a one in three chance of China’s real GDP growth averaging 5% or less over four consecutive quarters before the end of 2014, warns Nomura, said Bloomberg in this article. And the bank added that its China Stress Index, which monitors the risk of a hard landing, recorded its highest […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Beijing: China Deceleration On Track
Source of chart: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/ By John Richardson THERE has been a hugely important shift in the attitude of China’s central government. In the old days, when they set a target of say 12% national industrial production growth for a particular year, such targets were usually wildly exceeded. This was the result of local governments, […]
China’s “Overwhelming” Overcapacity
By John Richardson A HOPE being expressed by chemicals and polymer traders and producers the blog has spoken to this week is that the surge in lending in China during the first quarter will result in stronger GDP growth later this year. Total new financing, which includes both official bank loans and lending via the […]
When Lower Growth Is Good News
Beijing Life on the left, with lower growth, or life on the right with a higher GDP number. What would you choose? Source of picture: Wikimedia By John Richardson WHEN is lower growth good news? Monday ‘s announcement that China grew by a relatively modest 7.7% in Q1 is one example. As the FT’s The […]
China GDP Slowdown No Surprise
By John Richardson ALL but two analysts out of a Bloomberg survey of 41 over-estimated China’s first-quarter GDP growth. Monday’s announcement of the 7.7% increase – pushing China in to the longest streak of expansion below 8% for 20 years – understandably, therefore, led to numerous downgrades in full-year 2013 growth forecasts. For example: *Louis […]
Oil Prices Fall, As We Warned
Source: Daily Forex By John Richardson WE warned on 4 April that real economics threatened a sharp correction in crude-oil prices and it now appears to be happening. “New York’s main contract, West Texas Intermediate for May delivery, closed at $US88.71 a barrel on Monday [15 April], down a hefty $US2.58 from Friday,” wrote The […]
Managing China’s Middle Income Aspirations
Finding a way through…. Traffic in Shanghai. Picture: Rex Features By John Richardson WHEN the blog first visited China in the late 1990s, it travelled around Beijing in a fruitless and naive attempt to get people to really talk about everyday life. Last week was the complete opposite during our visit to Beijing and Shanghai. People initiated conversations […]
China’s New Expectations
By John Richardson THE difficulties of life in modern-day China was evident from several conversations the blog has held during the first two days of its visit to the country. “I had to get an apartment first, which cost a lot of money but luckily my parents were able to help me, and then I […]
The Real Economies Set To Dominate Q2
By John Richardson Sometimes a picture is worth many thousands of words. The above chart, supplied by one of the blog’s resources analyst contacts in Perth, Western Australia, neatly illustrates the dangerous divergence between real ecoomies and financial markets. As the Nikkei 225 has surged, Arabian Gulf very large crude carrier (VLCC) freight rates to […]
China Economic Policies To Get Tougher
By John Richardson THERE will, of course, be bright spots in petrochemicals markets as a result of factors independent of China’s new economic direction. For example, as an aromatics trader points out, there are huge paraxylene (PX) capacity additions in Asia that will provide a great deal of support to reformer economics. In 2010-2013, he […]
Jump to page: