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Asian Chemical Connections

China’s Q2 GDP Number Is Irrelevant

By John Richardson CHINA is due to release its second-quarter GDP growth number today (Wednesday) and so the analytical frenzy is already well under way. For example,  AFP writes in this article: “Chinese growth failed to accelerate in the second quarter despite government stimulus measures, an AFP survey predicts, with the world’s second-largest economy forecast […]

China’s Growth Worse Than You Think

  By John Richardson HEADLINE growth numbers seemed to be good enough for most China observers at the height of probably the world’s biggest- ever credit boom. Why? Because you could argue that the flood of credit, and with it investment, was lifting all of China’s economic boats. No matter that the wrong kind of […]

China And The Need To Keep On Digging

Sources: ICIS Consulting, World Bank and China’s NBS   By John Richardson POLYETHYLENE (PE) demand growth in China during 2007-2012 was essentially a story of: Firstly, excessive stimulus which compensated for the global financial crisis. And then from April 2011 up until the third quarter of 2012, a reduction in stimulus as the Chinese government […]

China: The Politics Behind The “Recovery”

By John Richardson THE overall HSBC flash purchasing managers’ index for January, which was released yesterday, was at a two-year high (see the above chart), with the sub-index of production at a 22-month high. This is great news for equity values and commodity prices, including petrochemicals. We might well see a rally in petrochemicals prices at […]

China’s Unreliable GDP Data

  By John Richardson THE economic slowdown throughout Asia became more apparent last week with the release of disappointing data, prompting interest rate cuts in China, Vietnam and South Korea. China’s key polyethylene (PE) market responded as trading volumes fell and sentiment weakened for the week ending 13 July, according to ICIS. Market participants, however, expressed […]

China’s Great Growth Gamble

  Source of picture: www.todaysfinancialnews.com China’s feverishly fast construction of roads, power plants and new industrial capacity has been designed to offset the decline in exports – and what a short-term success the policy has been. Of the 7.7% of GDP (gross domestic product) growth recorded for the first nine months of this year, 7.3 […]

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