My previous best-case outcome for China’s HDPE demand growth in 2022 was 6%. My worst-case scenario was a 3% decline. Now, though, I worry that the best-case outcome for 2022 HDPE demand could be flat or zero growth. My worst-case outcome is a 4% decline.
Asian Chemical Connections
China traditional Q4 petchems demand increase unlikely because of economic rebalancing
By John Richardson A NEW RESEARCH PAPER by economists Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang underlines the scale of what is at stake for petrochemicals demand if China doesn’t blink and sticks to its deleveraging of the real estate sector. The authors found that 29% of the Chinese economy is dependent on the property sector when […]
China: A Deliberate “Snowball Effect”
By John Richardson EARLIER this week we answered this question – “How bad will it get in China before it gets good?” – in this blog post and a follow-up post that looked at some the immense, long-term uncertainties. Now it is the turn of the other two questions, posed by a senior chemicals industry […]
China Property: It Is All About Local Govt Funding
By John Richardson THE more that things change in China’s property markets the more they stay the same, according to Deutsche Bank and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service. First of all, here are the Deutsche Bank arguments why all remains well in the sector, courtesy of this FT Alphaville blog post: The current decline in […]
China PE Market Strength Questioned
Dear blog reader – a technical error, beyond our control, means that we are unable to upload the tables and graphs for today’s post. Watch out next week, as, when the problem has been solved, we will add the missing tables and graphs. Apologies…. By John Richardson THE sustainability of the strength in China’s […]
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