By John Richardson IT seems inevitable that petrochemical markets will respond positively to the Chinese government’s decision to reduce bank-reserve requirements by 50 basis points. There will quite likely be a relief rally in the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contract in linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and a recovery in physical prices. But lost demand is […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Precarious Balancing Act
Him again…..Jim Chanos Source of picture. www.marketfolly.com By John Richardson THE Chinese government is playing a perilous game at the moment as it tries to undo damage caused by economic stimulus. As it grapples with attempting to lower property prices, while not causing a real-estate market collapse, this once again brings to mind famous […]
China H2 GDP Growth Only 5%
By John Richardson CHINA’S economy would only expand by 5% in H2 of this year and in the first half of 2012 on an annualised basis, said Diana Choyleva, a Hong Kong-based economist for Lombard Street Research. This was the result of credit tightening as China continued to battle inflation and a slump in export orders for manufactured goods on […]
China’s Long-term Shift In Inflation
By John Richardson THE odd chemicals trader who has gone long might well seek to talk-up his or her markets by claiming that the slowdown in China’s inflation rate is great news. But nobody interested in anything beyond the sale of the next cargo should read anything too-positive into the decline in consumer inflation in August […]
This Is Not Merely A Rough Patch
By John Richardson IT was interesting to read late last week about how certain chemicals analysts still believe that the big slump in the sector’s share prices might merely be a rough patch, possibly just a correction. In this same excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis, Citi US chemicals analyst PJ Jukevar talks about how […]
China Inflation Pressure Mounts
By Malini Hariharan The Chinese government’s efforts to control inflation are showing no signs of yielding results. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) admitted yesterday that the government was finding it difficult to achieve its full-year inflation target of below 4%. It cited high global commodity prices as a major factor driving up local production […]
China To The Rescue Again? Unlikely….
By John Richardson AS the global economy enters a new recession the great hope, as we discussed yesterday, is that China once again steps in with a stimulus package as did in late 2008. But can China risk a repeat of the huge increase in bank lending, a key part of that stimulus package? The answer […]
The View From Ground Level Is Different
By John Richardson The macroeconomic headwinds are building, making it hard for some of those at the ground level in Asian polyolefin markets to foresee anything but fragile and tough trading conditions. This is in marked contrast to the fairly optimistic outlook presented by some of the big, well-integrated and differentiated chemicals and polymer companies […]
China’s Inflation Struggle
By John Richardson LIKE the boy who cried Wolf the blog might not be believed as we once again warn about the risks ahead for China’s economy. We have been worried for a long time that eventually China’s huge economic stimulus package, in response to the threat of social unrest, would cause some major problems. […]
December Polyolefin Price-Rise Bid Will Fail
By John Richardson and Malini Hariharan in Shanghai A TWO-TIER China polyolefin market had developed in China over the last couple of years – but the $64,000 question right now is: At which of these two levels will most business be settled during December? The ever-volatile Dalian Commodity Exchange determines the day-by-day sentiment, while overseas […]
Jump to page: