By John Richardson WHAT if the number of new vehicle sales in China reached a long term peak of 28.9m in 2017? What if the declines in sales that we saw in 2018 continue or that at the very best sales remain flat? “Let’s put this in perspective, though. Just look at how the market […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Deep understanding of inland China essential for tracking 2019 slowdown
By John Richardson CHEMICALS companies are at great risk of getting Chinese demand very badly wrong in 2019 if they rely too heavily on flawed government data. This article from the South China Morning Post is another example of the long-standing practice of official data underestimating economic weakness when a downturn is taking place. The […]
China’s time poor, cash rich will want less PP and not more
By John Richardson LAST month I gave you the downside of urbanisation in China and how this could result in 7m tonnes of lower polyethylene (PE) demand in 2030 than we assume in our base case. A very good contact of mine has however pointed out this fascinating article from the World Economic Forum on […]
China Urbanisation Policies Threaten 7m Tonnes Of PE Consumption
By John Richardson CONTINUED urbanisation in China, it is often said by petrochemicals and polymer company CEOs, guarantees further strong demand growth for their products. But just because a statement is repeated on many occasions by very senior people during investor conference calls and at big public conferences doesn’t automatically make it true. This is […]
Why China Can Become Major Polypropylene Exporter By 2025
By John Richardson ONE of the main topics of debate in the global polypropylene (PP) business is whether or not China will become entirely self-sufficient. The pessimists, or rather I would say the realists, go a step further. They believe that there is every chance that China will become a significant exporter. The final result […]
Evidence Builds Of China Slowdown As Economic Reforms Gather Pace
By John Richardson THE CHINESE economy remains one of the most overlooked threats to the conventional opinion that we are in the midst of a synchronised global economic recovery. Sure, some alarm bells rang with last week’s release of China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The official PMI saw its steepest fall in six years. […]
China’s Polypropylene Market: The Big Inland Growth Opportunities
By John Richardson A CONVENTIONAL WAY to assess the pace of polymers demand growth in a developing country is to assume links with historical patterns in developing countries. How long did it take the US, Western Europe and other developed economies to reach their current level of per capita consumption? From these rates of increase, […]
China’s Polyethylene Market: Three New Scenarios For 2018-2025
By John Richardson THE above slide underlines the growing complexity surrounding China’s economy, politics, society, environmental policies and trading relationship with the US. I’ve placed this complexity in the context of the implications for the polyethylene (PE) industry. The above slide, and the full explanation below, updates my three scenarios from last September. These new […]
How China Will Narrow Its Income Gap
By John Richardson THE above chart is part of China’s New Normal, and so helps us to understand the future of the country’s chemicals and polymers supply and demand balances. As you can see, the gap between its richest and poorest provinces remains substantial despite some progress in narrowing this gap since 2002. The success […]
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