By John Richardson IT IS all about getting through the next 12 months with minimal damage whilst preparing for what the New Normal will look like when the COVID-19 crisis is over. I believe that changes in the nature of demand will be accelerated by the virus. These changes were already well underway before this […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global PP demand in 2020 faces two potential major downsides
By John Richardson THE GOOD news might be that some 30% of global PP demand is into packaging applications, and, as we all know, single-use packaging demand has seen a major consumption boom as a result of panic buying in supermarkets. But the bad news is that nobody has come up with an explanation […]
Why the long term price of oil could be lower than many people expect
By John Richardson I HAVE LONG been intrigued by the theory in quantum physics that electrons behave differently when they are observed as opposed to when they are not being observed. Data is quite similar in that it can be made to behave differently through conscious or unconscious confirmation bias. Two people can look at […]
China economy faces huge headwinds with negative full-year growth an inevitability
By John Richardson FRIDAY 17 April is the day when we will get the official Chinese GDP figure for Q1. If it is better than had been anticipated by analysts, the number will have a positive effect on financial markets. But be warned that this doesn’t necessarily mean that in the real, physical world of […]
After COVID-19: How US petrochemicals could become the laggard
The big oil, gas and petrochemicals companies have already started planning for how the world will look after we have conquered the virus. What follows is therefore one scenario for how the petrochemicals world might look. I hope it helps to stimulate and challenge your thinking. These are my personal views only and not the […]
Focus of petchems business must be on meeting medical and food needs
By John Richardson SEVERAL contacts have said to me over the last two weeks that increased medical and food security demand for petrochemicals is a distraction from coming to terms with the huge collapse in demand for all of our products that go into the durable goods which people are no longer buying. I agree […]
Be very, very cautious about buying into the idea of a Q2 crude price rally
By John Richardson IT IS the unprecedented nature of the demand shock that’s the thing, regardless of how much Saudi Arabia and Russia might cut crude production. In the old world, big production cutbacks would often result in a sustained rise in oil prices. But that was when there was normal demand. With some 3bn […]
China: temper your expectations of a H2 recovery for supply as well as demand reasons
By John Richardson CHINA IS gradually getting back to work, but only gradually because the government is trying to carefully calibrate the release of tens of millions of people from quarantine without triggering a second wave of infections. The way that China has tackled the disease has been nothing short of heroic. Small and medium-sized […]
Petrochemical feedstock purchasing managers: What to think about and what do next
By John Richardson ALL THE old assumptions about how oil, feedstock and petrochemicals markets work need to quite literally be thrown out of the window. No old model or way of thinking will work anymore until the crisis is over. The permanent changes that will take place in markets, and there will be many, is […]
Vital work to maintain petrochemicals supply for essential services must continue
By John Richardson INDUSTRY associations around the world are lobbying governments about the importance of the petrochemical industry for vital services beyond just the obvious production of hygiene products, face masks, pill bottles and disposable plastic bed sheets etc. This vital work needs to continue as the petrochemicals business is not fully understood by many […]