By John Richardson THE first shipment of ethane from the US to Europe, which is set to arrive on Wednesday to feed the INEOS cracker at Rafnes in Norway, will be widely interpreted as meaningonly one thing: That nothing in petrochemicals has essentially changed , as most of what we do to be successful is […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Seven Risks Of Choosing Specialties Over Commodites
By John Richardson CHEMICALS analysts love to talk with great enthusiasm about the specialty end of this business because margins per tonne can be a great deal higher than in boring old plain vanilla commodities. Specialties is an exciting story to spin to investors, as it contains “buzz” phrases such as “value addition” and “innovation”. […]
How To Grow Sales In A Deflationary World
By John Richardson CHINA hugely increased its propylene and derivatives capacity to the point where by 2011, it became the first region or country where downstream propylene consumption surpassed that of ethylene. This didn’t mean booming actual demand for propylene and what it is used to make. Instead, it meant that lots of “empty factories” […]
Oil Price Recovery: Please Remember 2015
By John Richardson EVEN if oil prices should go down right now, based on supply and demand fundamentals, the financial players will not let that happen. This is the view of several analysts who point to the closure of numerous short positions, in favour of opening long positions, over the last few weeks. In time-honoured […]
Demand: The New Direction for Profit
By John Richardson WE were right about China’s change of economic direction, which we identified in November 2013. We were then right about the collapse in oil prices from August 2014 onwards. And we also made the right call when we pointed out that these two events are inextricably linked. Being right in the past is, […]
The Risks Ahead For Polyethylene
By John Richardson TOO many people will look at the chart on the left and think, “Crisis? What crisis?” But glance to the right for what it is like in another petrochemicals value chain. What is happening on the right could sooner than you think be happening on the left: The polyethylene (PE) value chain […]
Anchors Aweigh: $26 Oil As Your New Starting Point
By John Richardson IF not these six months then it will be the second half of this year and if not H2 then definitely, without a doubt, sometime in 2017. So goes the constantly shifting thinking of some oil, gas and chemicals companies, and some of the independent analysts, on when oil markets will rebalance […]
This Is Not Just Another Economic Downcycle
By John Richardson ECONOMIC upcycles come and go, but in the end, the fundamentals don’t change. This is the message I have picked up from conversations with senior industry executives over the last two weeks. “All we have to do is cut costs, wait this one out, and everything will be fine in 12-18 months. […]
Japan Repeats Its Mistake. You Cannot Print Babies
By John Richardson WHEN you have built your reputation on a policy that has so far failed, you have essentially two options. You can either admit you were wrong and reverse course or double down on your mistake – i.e. do more of the same failed thing in the hope that it will somehow eventually […]
Another Distracting Myth: Cheaper Oil Good For Growth
By John Richardson AS PEOPLE have frantically repositioned themselves over the last few months, one of the counter-arguments to the New Normal is that cheaper oil is a good thing for the global economy. The rationale behind this claim is that the drop in crude will boost consumer spending through cheaper gasoline and diesel etc. […]
Jump to page: