Source of picture: www.americanprogress.org By John Richardson China’s high-density polyethylene (HDPE) demand is expected to grow by 38% to around 7m tonnes forecasts CBI China, the Shanghai-based commodity information service. Linear-low density (LLDPE) is expected to rise by 30% to 4.6m tonnes and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) will increase by 20% to 3.4m tonnes, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China indicates monetary tightening
Confused Direction Source of picture: China Daily A TIGHTER monetary policy is being evaluated by China’s State Council, one of the country’s most-powerful legislative bodies, according to numerous media reports – including this one from Reuters. And the chairman of China’s sixth-biggest lender was quoted in the Financial Times today as saying that […]
How do Asian cracker operators compete?
Source of Picture: www.autospies.com Not an easy answer and not one much suited to a few paragraphs of blogging. But here’s one thought as the competitive environment becomes a great deal more difficult due to new Middle East capacity and the potential for China to move towards self-sufficiency in polyethylene and polypropylene: Have a chat […]
Calling all CFOs: Ready To Take The Plunge?
Source of picture: oxo.typepad.com Leaving China aside for a change – where the speculative frenzy continues apace -Paul Satchell, chemicals analyst, has a four-step measure for assessing whether the US and Europe are really out of the woods. “Purchasing behaviour is strongly influenced by a customer’s confidence, and, in the current context, four distinct phases […]
China inventory sentiment survey
Peering through the fog On the theme of data again, in the ideal world it might be possible to send thousands of hardworking foot solders out into the field in China to chase down every warehouse of polymers and count every single pallet of polyolefins. Not not really – don’t talk nonsense; in reality, this […]
Credit Expansion Linked To Dalian Boom?
Source of Picture: http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/ We have just started doing our research and so more details later – but see attached this Excel spreadsheet – lendingVDalianOI.xls It compares the increase in lending from China’s banks with the amount of open interest in the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures contracts. Volume traded on the […]
Dalian LLDPE futures explained?
My last blog entry quoted a North American industry source who was concerned over the potential for physical delivery on the Dalian futures exchange to flood the real market and send prices crashing. In my ignorance of how futures markets works, and as a typicaql semi-numerate journalist, I therefore asked a colleague with a futures/mathematical […]
Where is the real demand recovery?
Have you ever been away on holiday and have cut yourself off from from work, only to return and find that nothing has changed? So it seems in polyolefin markets. As this blog has been writing about for several months, the recovery in pricing seems to have been mainly feedstock-driven as this article from ICIS […]
Back to the Serious Stuff: Fitch issues China warning
As I’ve been warning on this blog for some time, the explosion of credit in China has created a great deal of paper-bottomed optimism over the recovery. Fitch, the ratings agency, has just raised its macro-prudential risk indicator ffor China from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland et al) because of the lending surge […]
Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China
This very interesting note from Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank (see the end of this post) offers evidence to support what this blog has been worried about for some time – the quality of China’s economic rebound. The government would presumably be less concerned about the sharp increase in loan […]
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