By John Richardson AS DELEGATES take part in this year’s virtual annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting, they need to try and get to the bottom of the mystery of why demand for the product at the heart of the steam cracker business – polyethylene (PE) – has done so surprisingly well. Once they have […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Environmental taxes on US polyethylene shipments to the EU seem inevitable
By John Richardson IT ALL seemed to make perfect sense at the time. Feedstock and financing were incredibly cheap and trade barriers kept falling. Although there were some faint and distant public rumblings about plastic rubbish, most of the public and the majority of legislators were not bothered about the issue. The global economy was […]
Sustainability to stop petchems from dominating oil growth…..
….and oil consumption into petchems might even decline because of the plastics rubbish crisis By John Richardson DONALD RUMSFELD famously categorised the future into “known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns”. A new study by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that in the world as it is today – the “known knowns” – petrochemicals […]
China’s time poor, cash rich will want less PP and not more
By John Richardson LAST month I gave you the downside of urbanisation in China and how this could result in 7m tonnes of lower polyethylene (PE) demand in 2030 than we assume in our base case. A very good contact of mine has however pointed out this fascinating article from the World Economic Forum on […]
China Urbanisation Policies Threaten 7m Tonnes Of PE Consumption
By John Richardson CONTINUED urbanisation in China, it is often said by petrochemicals and polymer company CEOs, guarantees further strong demand growth for their products. But just because a statement is repeated on many occasions by very senior people during investor conference calls and at big public conferences doesn’t automatically make it true. This is […]
Why China Can Become Major Polypropylene Exporter By 2025
By John Richardson ONE of the main topics of debate in the global polypropylene (PP) business is whether or not China will become entirely self-sufficient. The pessimists, or rather I would say the realists, go a step further. They believe that there is every chance that China will become a significant exporter. The final result […]
China Polyethylene: Inland Growth And Internet Sales Versus Threat From Sustainability
By John Richardson THE ABOVE CHART uses the same approach I used in late February for my post on per capita polypropylene consumption in China. In this case, my focus is on polyethylene (PE): The latest available IMF data for per capita income levels by province and other administrative region in China is for 2016 […]
Plastic Waste: The Billion Dollar Threat To The Global Polymers Business
By John Richardson THE global scale of the plastics waste challenge is illustrated by the above chart from my blog post last October. Using our ICIS Supply & Demand Database, examining the production of of 11 major polymers, some 4bn tonnes of plastic has ended up in the natural environment since 1978. Estimates like this […]
Peak Oil And The Aramco/SABIC Petchems Project
By John Richardson THERE is an important connection between this week’s announcement by Saudi Aramco and SABIC of an MoU for a direct oil-to-chemicals complex and the Tesla Semi electric truck, which is being trialled by DHL and other logistics companies. To fully understand this link, let’s first consider the wider context behind the Tesla truck […]
Peak Oil Demand Opportunities For Petchems Are Being Over-Hyped
By John Richardson THERE is a lot of excitement about new petrochemicals feedstock opportunities resulting from the approaching end of the road for the internal combustion engine, the rise of the electricity battery car and the related arrival of Peak Oil Demand. Here is some of the logic which supports the notion that the demise […]