By John Richardson IN SEPTEMBER last year, I had thought that China might raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% by as early as 2022 over its end-2017 level of 23.5m tonnes. Now, though, our updated data show the potential for a staggering 113% increase over the next four years, when you look […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China To Raise Ethylene Capacity By 71% In Major Self-Sufficiency Drive
By John Richardson CHINA could raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% and its propylene capacity by at least 21%, according to my latest analysis of a major new wave of naphtha, ethane and LPG crackers. The above chart is an update of the chart I first published back in June. In detail: […]
Coal-To-Chemicals Funding Clampdown
By John Richardson Coal-to-chemicals is one of nine major industrial sectors that the China Banking Regulatory Commission has warned is blighted with overcapacity and other risks related to what it calls, rather disingenuously, “the economic cycle”. Thus, the commission has advised the state-owned banks to exercise greater caution in extending further funding to these sectors. […]
Feedstock Assumptions A Risk
By John Richardson THE feedstock landscape can change very rapidly as the shale-gas revolution amply demonstrates. But the assumption, right now, is that the landscape will not undergo any further radical changes. As a result, as much as 7.65m tonne/year could be added to US ethylene capacity by 2017. That would represent a 29 percent […]
Butadiene Oversupply Threat
By John Richardson THERE is a lot of talk at the moment about on-purpose butadiene, via the butane dehydrogenation process, because of the recent extreme market tightness . The tightness is the result of a shift to lighter cracker feedstocks and reduced operating rates at naphtha crackers in Europe. Future feedstock patterns are also not […]
China’s Shale Gas Potential
By John Richardson THE shale-gas revolution, which, of course, is already well underway in the US, could also have major implications for petrochemicals in China. China has 1,275 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale-gas reserves, according to the Energy Information Administration – more than the US. As a result, the Chinese National Energy Administration has […]
China Coal-to-Chems Challenges
By John Richardson CHINA’s coal reserves will last only another 38 years at their present rate of extraction, according to Kai Pflug, CEO of Shanghai-based consultancy, Management Consulting – Chemicals, in this article from ICIS Chemical Business. This suggests that the current enthusiasm for coal-based chemicals, as coal supplies become constrained, might wane among China’s […]
US Petchems: The Bigger Picture
By John Richardson Access to cheap feedstock, access to cheap feedstock and access to cheap feedstock might seem like the three most-important elements to any petrochemicals strategy. Thus, for many in the US, adding capacity based on abundant and therefore low-cost ethane, thanks to the shale-gas revolution, adds up. US ethylene capacity could be increased by […]
APIC Delegates Focus On Capacity
By John Richardson THE article of faith publicly expressed at last week’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Fukuoka, Japan, was that the current problems with demand in China and India were only temporary. Discussions the blog held were packed with the conventional wisdom that not enough capacity would be built over the next few […]
Balancing economics with the environment
Recent comments by An Qiyuan, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee for Shaanxi, warned of the environment and social catastrophe facing the northwestern province of China because of a shortage of water. He was referring to the diversion of water from Shaanxi to Beijing ahead of the Olympics and hydroelectricity plants which he […]
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