By John Richardson WHACK A MOLE on the head and another one pops up somewhere else. This is tremendous fun as an arcade game but not that much fun, metaphorically speaking, for the Chinese government. “The commodity-backed loans at the centre of a probe into an alleged financial scam at a Chinese port [Qingdao] are […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Deflation
The second of our series of blog posts on China’s economic challenges over the next 12-18 months focuses on deflation. By John Richardson DEFLATION has now become a major concern for the Chinese economy following the release of official data earlier this week that showed a 2.1 percent decline in producer prices in June […]
An All Mighty Dalian Muddle
By John Richardson UNDERSTANDING the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contract in RMB-priced linear low-density polyethylene ((LLDPE) requires an understanding of what the traders are up to at any particular point in time, as this is almost entirely a speculators’ market. So, what happened late last year is very illuminating. The chart below shows a sharp spike […]
Dalian Reflects China-EU Risks
By John Richardson AT first glance it might seem strange that the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures contract has fluctuated so dramatically on news emanating from the Eurozone. The May 2012 contract – the one most actively traded at the moment and therefore the one most closely watched by the market – fell […]
Dalian offers hope …but naphtha continues to climb
By Malini Hariharan The good news for polyolefin producers is that prices in China are inching up supported by an upward movement in the key linear low-density polyethylene (lldPE) futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE). The arbitrage window has opened with the Dalian contract for May at CNY12,800/tonne and spot prices at CNY11,100-11,300/tonne. […]
China Polyolefins Divorced From Fundamentals
A permanent separation? Source of picture: edu.com By John Richardson IT IS pretty easy to predict specific events that will cause declines in polyolefins pricing in China next year thanks to the big role that macro-economics now plays in setting the market. No longer do you need to mainly sweat over increasingly difficult polyethylene […]
Petchems And Tomorow’s OPEC Meeting
By John Richardson THE next OPEC meeting – which takes place in Ecuador this Saturday (11 December) – is crucial for petrochemicals for two reasons. Firstly, the crude market has turned bullish recently as a result of the early onset of winter in Europe and the growing belief that the oil-supply cushion is being reduced. […]
December Polyolefin Price-Rise Bid Will Fail
By John Richardson and Malini Hariharan in Shanghai A TWO-TIER China polyolefin market had developed in China over the last couple of years – but the $64,000 question right now is: At which of these two levels will most business be settled during December? The ever-volatile Dalian Commodity Exchange determines the day-by-day sentiment, while overseas […]
Chemicals And Polymer Prices Behave As We Predicted
By John Richardson AS the blog had anticipated would happen, there were sharp retreats in some chemicals and polymers pricing late last week on the steep declines in equity and crude prices. Polyethylene (PE) fell by $70-130/tonne, according to our colleagues at ICIS pricing, as the Dalian Commodity Exchange once again demonstrated that it has become […]
Facts, Fiction And Price-Rise Sustainability
Source of picture: tycoonreport.com By John Richardson This is a very dangerous time for petrochemicals producers as they attempt to separate real, sustainable demand from feedstock-cost related price rises and speculation. A bubble – as we discussed yesterday – seems to have formed in purified terephthalic (PTA) and, according to ICIS news, in […]
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