By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart confirms that China’s economic slowdown, which began in January-February, continued into May. Remember that the only valid comparisons are between the first few months of this year and late 2020. If you conduct year-on-year comparisons then of course growth will look better because for several months during January-May 2020, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polyethylene demand boom likely, increasing the sustainability challenge
By John Richardson IT FEELS LIKE several lifetimes ago. If you recall, way back in November-December 2019 Asian variable cost integrated naphtha-based polyethylene (PE) margins turned negative because of the increase in US capacity. Then in January the following year, deep Asian and Middle East operating rate cuts returned some order to the market. Then, […]
The pandemic, climate change, plastic waste and the great divide: the world in 2025
By John Richardson NOBODY SHOULD be surprised that the developing world has fallen behind in the battle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as the region is a long way from recovering from the pandemic. Evidence to this effect emerged last week in comments made by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). […]
Inflation pressures build on prolonged supply chain disruptions
By John Richardson OK, I MAY have got this wrong. Inflation could be a bigger problem than I envisaged only three weeks ago. But if so, I would at least be in exalted company. A meeting of the US Federal Reserve concluded that generalised inflation was not a concern, and that “finished goods have not […]
China polyolefins: key signals to monitor on whether 2021 slowdown is reversing
By John Richardson IT REALLY IS EXTRAORDINARY how commentators continue to use year-on-year comparisons for the Chinese economy in H1 this year versus the first half of 2020. Demand was of course always going to be better in H2 2021, provided China maintained control over the pandemic, because the economy came to a virtual […]
Boom in petrochemicals demand guaranteed but we must grow sustainably
By John Richardson ONE OF THE GREATEST achievements of the last 30 years has been the fall in the number of people living in extreme poverty. In 1999, 1.9bn of the world’s population were living on less than $1.90, the Word Bank’s definition of extreme poverty. Despite setbacks caused by the pandemic, this had […]
Booming internet sales point towards strong 2021-2025 LLDPE demand growth
By John Richardson ONLINE SALES accounted for 19% of all retail sales in seven industrialised countries in 2020, up from 16% the year before, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Year-on-year online sales growth numbers by country in 2020 included 59% in Australia, 46.7% in Britain and 14.6% […]
Demographics are reshaping petrochemicals trade flows, investment patterns and demand
By John Richardson TEN YEARS AGO, fellow blogger Paul Hodges and I first highlighted the leading role that changing demographics would play in reshaping petrochemicals supply and demand. We have been emphasising the importance of demographics ever since. Demographics have, of course, always been a critical shaper of economies throughout human history. But during […]
Inflation anxiety is misplaced as upward price pressures are only temporary
By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE are panicking about global inflation. But I believe that much of the upward pressures on producer and consumer prices are temporary as they are the result of supply chain disruptions which will eventually disappear. I also believe that demographics in the West and China represent long-term deflationary pressures that are […]
China will create petrochemicals deflation with the only question being how
By John Richardson THE FEEDBACK I have received on my series of posts about the potential for rapidly rising Chinese petrochemicals self-sufficiency has focused on the detail. “I don’t see China building that many new paraxylene (PX) plants because they are already long on gasoline, so they cannot keep adding refineries to supply the mixed […]