If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
Asian Chemical Connections
Omicron, petchems and the developing world: we might get lucky this time, but maybe not next time
By John Richardson UNTIL ALL of us are adequately vaccinated none of us are sufficiently protected is a point I’ve been making since late last year. So, providing the developing world with the $66bn it needs to be adequately vaccinated – and we appear to be nowhere near raising that figure – would not be […]
Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term divergence in global markets or something temporary. As discussed on Monday, when I examined linear low-density PE (LLDPE) market (and the same […]
Every climate initiative must be road tested in the developing world – and adequate funding is essential
The views expressed in this blog are, as always, my personal views and do not represent the views of ICIS. As always, also, they are here to be challenged with alternative views supported by the data. Thank you! By John Richardson EVERY SOLUTION to the biggest challenges our industry faces – which of course are […]
A deep dive into HDPE and PP: opportunities and challenges for H2 this year and 2022
By John Richardson Executive summary China’s petrochemicals demand boomed in H2 because of the surge in Chinese exports of finished goods that served lockdown needs in developed economies. As lockdowns ease, most of the air has escaped from what was clearly always a bubble. For example, high-density PE (HDPE) demand is set to be 9% […]
Boom in petrochemicals demand guaranteed but we must grow sustainably
By John Richardson ONE OF THE GREATEST achievements of the last 30 years has been the fall in the number of people living in extreme poverty. In 1999, 1.9bn of the world’s population were living on less than $1.90, the Word Bank’s definition of extreme poverty. Despite setbacks caused by the pandemic, this had […]
India’s pandemic crisis is a pointer towards wider developing-world risks
By John Richardson IT IS fabulous to read about how Indian Oil Corp and Reliance Industries are supplying oxygen from their petrochemicals operations to help relieve the Indian medical shortages. Local steel plants are also diverting oxygen supplies to hospitals as international relief efforts gather pace. My thoughts and best wishes are with my Indian […]
Vaccines, petrochemicals demand and a much more complex world
By John Richardson WE DIDN’T used to require expert knowledge of vaccines, epidemiology, political science and the impact of social media on human behaviour if we wanted to forecast petrochemicals demand, to name but a few of the many new disciplines that have now become essential. All we had to do was take IMF or […]
Plastic rubbish: the pandemic is increasing rather than reducing the pressure for change
This is the first of a series of blog posts where I will examine the environmental paradigm shift and what it means for the petrochemicals industry. This first post deals with the bottom end of the value chain, the plastic packaging business, and the pressure being exerted upward on petrochemicals producers to change how they […]
Rate of recovery hugely reliant on effectiveness of government policies
By John Richardson UNLESS MORE action is taken by developed countries to help counter the impact of the pandemic in developing countries, we could see a bifurcated world. The developing world might suffer a lost generation of growth as the developed world fully recovers. But this, in my view, is a highly unlikely scenario. Failure […]