Just to stress again that this blog represents my personal views and not those if ICIS. By John Richardson YOU WILL NEED to constantly debate the details of the megatrends as they will very often change entirely. And whilst today’s four megatrends – sustainability, the pandemic, demographics and geopolitics – will remain unchanged, their relative […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Exporters of PP and SM to China seem to have options other than shutdowns, but not PX exporters
By John Richardson DIFFICULT choices lie ahead for exporters of polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene (PX) to China. From next year onwards, the country’s imports will start to decline and by 2023-2025 complete self-sufficiency may be reached in all these products. Just how significant this shift will be for global markets, we can […]
China may next year import 66% less PP from South Korea than in 2020, 72% less styrene from Saudi Arabia
By John Richardson All the numbers that follow are my estimates only and are not the official ICIS numbers. But I hope what follows helps you with your planning process for 2021. Our ICIS Supply & Demand Database is a key tool for your planning process, as all the scenarios below would have been impossible […]
China’s planned economy boosts global petchems this year but poses a self-sufficiency threat in 2021
By John Richardson IT IS always useful to develop a good plan and then effectively implement the plan. China appears to have been successful in both these respects in 2020 and this has been of great benefit to the global petrochemicals business. If only this were the case with all other countries. Without the plan, […]
Politics and petrochemicals: Fifth Plenum review and the US elections
By John Richardson The rather dull and very short formal government communique that was released after the end of China’s 26-29 October Fifth Plenum should not lead you to conclude that nothing of great importance happened during this Chinese Communist Party meeting. What you should instead still conclude, as I have been highlighting since September, […]
Why China’s polyethylene imports could be either 22m tonnes or 3m tonnes in 2030
By John Richardson THERE are so many angles to this that, as with the potential outcomes of the US presidential election, China’s Fifth Plenum is worth many acres of newsprint. The plenum is taking place on 26-29 October, whereas, as everyone bar the odd Martian knows, the US election is on 3 November. The plenum […]
China rapid rebound promises another great year for petchems, but beware of the fault lines
By John Richardson IT helped immensely that as the rest of the world was shutting down, China’s factories were coming back on stream. This allowed China to corner global markets for face masks, other personal protective equipment and pharmaceuticals. What was also a big plus for China was that it already had large global stakes […]
Retreat of globalisation and implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson EVER SINCE the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, and the last great geopolitical struggle came to an end, the petrochemicals business has benefited from a highly globalised world. Product has flowed, almost seamlessly, from one country to another in ever greater volumes. Sure, it has never been the case of feedstock advantage […]
US polyethylene: resilient demand could be at risk from delay to new stimulus
By John Richardson THIS REMAINS a mystery that needs to be solved: why US polyethylene (PE) markets continue to perform so much better in 2020 than they did during the Global Financial Crisis. Why it is such a mystery is that the economic events of 2008 were nowhere near as grim as this year. US […]
China petrochemicals demand boom remains heavily reliant on finished goods exports
By John Richardson THERE will be a lot of official data released about booming consumer spending during China’s Golden Week and National Day holidays, which run from 1-8 October. The numbers, when they emerge later this month, will be broadly seen as further evidence that China’s recovery is firmly on track. This will add to […]