Chapter 2 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal is published today. In a completely new and challenging analysis we argue: • The Western BabyBoomers boosted chemical demand for housing, autos and electronics during their peak consumption years between 1980-2000. But this demand is unlikely to be sustained, now they are entering the 55+ age […]
Asian Chemical Connections
European Markets Weaken Further
By John Richardson THE dreadful state of European polyolefin markets became even more evident late last week as prices continued their declines. Discussions on further reductions in European olefin contract prices were also set to begin today. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) spot prices have now fallen by Euros80-150/tonne in June, […]
US Olefins, Polyolefins In Denial
By John Richardson THE majority of financial analysts seem to be clinging on to the hope that the recovery in petrochemicals demand from China is about to happen. This doesn’t just apply to our industry. Analysts across many sectors appear to have staked their reputations on a return to the Old Normal of booming […]
Ethylene And PE Markets Decline Continues
By John Richardson THE decline in Asian and European ethylene and polyethylene (PE) markets continued last week with no sign of the recovery that producers still hope will take place by end-June at the latest. Asian ethylene prices slipped by a further $60-70/tonne to $1,130-1,170/tonne FOB Korea to reach a six-month low, according to our […]
Saudi Crackers Could Soon Be At 100%
By John Richardson SAUDI ARABIA’S crackers could soon be running at operating rates of 100% again following widespread reports quoting the al-Hayat newspaper that the country’s crude production is set to rise to 10m barrels a day in July. Al-Hayat, a Saudi newspaper, is seen as a reliable indicator of government intentions. We reported last week how […]
China Polyolefin Demand Growth Flat In 2011
By John Richardson POLYOLEFINS demand growth in China is likely to be flat in 2011 over last year, a senior industry executive and a consultant have told us. “I am quite pessimistic and don’t see the Chinese government winning the battle to bring inflation below 4% during this year (its target) and so the credit restrictions […]
Global Polyolefins At A Tipping Point
By John Richardson A GLOBAL slowdown in manufacturing is already being reflected in European and US polyolefin markets as anxiety in the industry grows over the prospects for the rest of this year. European June contract prices for ethylene and propylene have declined after seven consecutive months of increases. Ethylene contracts have slipped by Euros45/tonne […]
APIC Delegates Focus On Capacity
By John Richardson THE article of faith publicly expressed at last week’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Fukuoka, Japan, was that the current problems with demand in China and India were only temporary. Discussions the blog held were packed with the conventional wisdom that not enough capacity would be built over the next few […]
Intuitively The Problems Are Building
By John Richardson THE signs are ominous as they have been since the beginning of the crisis. Intuitively, it still feels as if we are heading for some major macroeconomic problems. As Andrew Liveris, CEO of Dow Chemical, put it last week: “Overall, the world continues to recover to pre-recession levels. However, with inflation concerns […]
How Can This Year Not Be A Let Down?
Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, suggests more oil supply could be on the way Source of picture: stonesoupstationblogspot.com By John Richardson CHEMICALS analysts at HSBC have added further weight to the argument that 2011 could well turn out to be a year of disappointment following the very high expectations set […]
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