By John Richardson US stock markets yesterday demonstrated their worst negative reaction to a US Federal rate rise since 1994. Asian equities also fell this morning in response to the Fed decision. But you would be entirely wrong to conclude that all that needs to happen to return to the bull run is for the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US GDP growth peaks as economic challenges build
A FULL two percentage points of US third quarter growth of 3.5% was down to stock building. Total US inventories grew by $76bn in Q3 following a $37bn contraction in the second quarter. The fourth quarter is always a period of destocking in the US and everywhere. This will combine with the big build-up in […]
Global Economy In 2018: Stimulus Withdrawal Threatens Complacent Outlook
By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world of soar-away stock markets backed up by the notion that the sustained global economic recovery will not be derailed in 2018, there is a need to detail the major risks out there. Today’s post will look at the risks posed by the withdrawal of Western and Chinese central bank […]
Global Debt At Unsustainable Levels As We Wait For Trigger Factor
By John Richardson THE whole point about debt is that it should be sustainable. You should only lend or borrower money if you are entirely convinced that future economic conditions – i.e. future demand – justify your commitments. Nice theory, shame about the practice. If lenders and borrowers badly misjudge future real demand then we […]
China NPC Underlines Inflation Focus
The course of true love never runs smooth…..Happy China couples get divorced and then plan to remarry in order to avoid new property tax Source of picture: Quirky China News/Rex Features By John Richardson China will see “large inflation pressure in the second half of the year,” said a People’s Bank of China official on the […]
Place Your Bets – Who Is Right?
By John Richardson DOW Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris said in a 27 July conference call that China’s industrial economy was still doing very well. “They’re managing themselves down very nicely,” he added, pointing to official GDP growth numbers of 8-9%, which translate into chemicals and plastics growth of 12-13%. “We’re not seeing any issue here […]
Growing Uncertainties Cloud Chemicals Outlook
By John Richardson THE global growth outlook grows ever murkier as a result of credit tightening in China (or is the problem instead continued strong growth in lending?), inflation problems throughout Asia, possible monetary tightening in the West, the direction of oil prices and the Japanese tsunami-earthquake. We feel that this is making the rest […]