By John Richardson PETROCHEMICALS are a great barometer for economic growth as they are the raw materials for so many finished goods. So, if petrochemicals producers see their profits slip, this provides an early signal that something is wrong with wider economies. It is not just petchems producers that should therefore take note of the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Asian Polyolefins Markets Still Indicate Economic Slowdown
By John Richardson ANOTHER week has led to another fall in Asian polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices despite higher naphtha feedstock costs on stronger crude oil. Pricing has been weak since the Lunar New Year Holidays, (15-21 February). Market participants had expected the opposite on a recovery in demand following the holidays and tight […]
US-China Trade Relations In 2018: Prepare For The Worst
By John Richardson WE GOT away with it in 2017 by luck rather than design, as there is of course very little that petrochemicals and polymers companies can do to prevent a global trade war other than lobbying politicians. Part of the reason for the lucky escape was the warmth of the Trump-Xi meeting in […]
Global Debt At Unsustainable Levels As We Wait For Trigger Factor
By John Richardson THE whole point about debt is that it should be sustainable. You should only lend or borrower money if you are entirely convinced that future economic conditions – i.e. future demand – justify your commitments. Nice theory, shame about the practice. If lenders and borrowers badly misjudge future real demand then we […]
Failed Pursuit Of Inflation Creates Major Economic Risks
By John Richardson BUILDING UP lots of debt isn’t a problem if it leads to inflation that then inflates-away the value of some of that lending. And debt-induced healthy increases in inflation also show that all of that lending has worked, as these levels of inflation point to snug employment markets and strong wage growth. […]
New Global Economic Crisis: Timing Is The Only Doubt
By John Richardson IT IS only a question of when rather than if there will be a further unwinding in all the global economic, social and political unbalances resulting from the end of the Economic Supercycle. Sure, we might get away with it for another six months, maybe 12 months – even 18 months, perhaps. […]
Chemicals “Spin” Will Continue
By John Richardson THE reluctance of sell-side chemicals analysts to downgrade their forecasts should be severely tested by the Federal Reserve’s decision to downgrade its outlook for the US economy. US GDP growth will now be only 2.7-2.9% in 2011 compared with the April estimate of 3.1% to 3.3%, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told a […]
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