By John Richardson LABOUR markets are tight in China and so on the surface there appears to be no great pressure on Beijing to attempt to export its way out of an unemployment crisis. But what happens if, as we suspect, real GDP growth has fallen to 4% or even lower? The government, despite its […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China NPC Underlines Inflation Focus
The course of true love never runs smooth…..Happy China couples get divorced and then plan to remarry in order to avoid new property tax Source of picture: Quirky China News/Rex Features By John Richardson China will see “large inflation pressure in the second half of the year,” said a People’s Bank of China official on the […]
As Oil Rises Demand Weakens
By John Richardson A barrel of Brent crude oil cost $88.49 a barrel in June. Yesterday, it was trading at $116.55 a barrel. In the intervening period the global economy has substantially weakened, most notably in the case of China, as the problems that have been identifiable since late last year have become widely recognised. […]
US Fed policy may be going Back to the Future
by Paul Hodges Today’s 419 point fall on the Dow Jones Average, and $6/bbl fall in WTI crude oil prices, may not be just another example of the wild volatility that has come to seem normal in financial markets. It may also mark the end of an era. Since 1994, the US Federal Reserve has […]
China And Bouncing Dead Cats
By John Richardson Fifty per cent of the blog (John Richardson) is on leave for the next two weeks. Next week Paul Hodges will be posting on Asian Chemical Connections. Paul runs the ICIS Chemicals & Economy blog.Then from the week starting 22 August my fellow ACC blogger, Malini Hariharan, returns from her leave and […]
Chemicals Buying & The IEA Decision
By John Richardson CHEMICALS and polymer demand looks even less likely to be supported by “buying forward” following yesterday’s decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release 60m barrels of crude into the market. Here is a bit of context first before we look at the implications of the IEA decision, which, along […]
Chemicals “Spin” Will Continue
By John Richardson THE reluctance of sell-side chemicals analysts to downgrade their forecasts should be severely tested by the Federal Reserve’s decision to downgrade its outlook for the US economy. US GDP growth will now be only 2.7-2.9% in 2011 compared with the April estimate of 3.1% to 3.3%, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told a […]
Chemicals And The Removal Of The Punch Bowl
By John Richardson LUNCH with a chemicals analyst yesterday, during the blog’s latest trip to Singapore, gave an intriguing glimpse into the world of those who invest in the chemicals industry. “The Morgan Stanely “Supercycle” report (which the blog wrote about late last year) seems to be on every fund managers desks,” he said. “These […]
Growing Uncertainties Cloud Chemicals Outlook
By John Richardson THE global growth outlook grows ever murkier as a result of credit tightening in China (or is the problem instead continued strong growth in lending?), inflation problems throughout Asia, possible monetary tightening in the West, the direction of oil prices and the Japanese tsunami-earthquake. We feel that this is making the rest […]
Any spare change, Mister?
Financial Times, LyondellBasell, Federal Reserve, state ownership, Barack Obama, Us stimulus package