Tag Archives | forecasting


Lies, damned lies and data

“Excuse me, are you sure about that?”

Source of Picture: bshort.org

A wise man said to me recently: “All data is wrong; all you can do is make sure you are consistently wrong”.

Now this is absolutely not meant to …

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Market mind reading

Regular readers of my blog might have seen last week’s post linking through to the New Scientist article about research into new ways of assessing how markets behave. Prompted by the irrationally steep falls triggered by the credit crisis (or …

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Crazy money breeds new thinking

This article from The New Scientist suggests we might have to develop a whole new way of asssesing what drives all commodity markets.

Intuitively, everyone knows that the herd instinct matters. But to measure this mathematically, or statistically, seems a …

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Will free forecasting have its Wiki way?

Now, please be patient – the sting is in the tail. This could have great relevance to your business…..

The industry in which I work – the media – has been decimated by the Internet with billions of dollars of …

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The flawed “science” of forecasting

Maybe I’ve been to too many conferences this year, and indeed over the last decade, and have seen too many forecasts go wrong.

Call me cynical, or plain wrong, but………..…

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Watch out for the Black Swans and dump the consultants

The former trader turned professor, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his new book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable warns against the danger of forecasting. Forecasting is, obviously, always based on what he know and not what we …

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The flawed art of supply & demand forecasting

A guest blog – see Vanishing Post Boxes on this great blog by the authors of the book Freakonomics put me in mind of all those demand and supply forecasts that are invariably wrong. Yes, I know I’ve written about …

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