By John Richardson HOW much of the rise in oil prices since June of last year has been down to the fundamentals of supply and demand versus the hedge funds taking out a record number of short positions? We are about to find out, I feel. There are early signs that the hedgies have started […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Petchems Face Major Inventory Risk As Economic Confidence Builds
By John Richardson NOBODY knows how many tonnes of un-cracked naphtha are sitting in steam cracker storage tanks around the world compared with H1 of last year. Or how much plastic resin and rolls of plastic film are being held in storage by converters. Or how many car dashboards are in the warehouses of auto […]
Oil Prices: Speculation Reaches New High, As Do Risks For Real Economy
By John Richardson HEDGE funds and other speculators had amassed a record amount of futures contracts of 885m barrels by 31 January, according to the Financial Times. These contracts were equivalent to almost nine days of actual, physical demand. And the overwhelming majority of these contracts were “long” – i.e. they were of course based on the assumption […]
Crude Oil Price Risks Escalate
By John Richardson FINANCIAL speculators began to play an increasing role in crude-oil markets following liberalisation of financial trading rules, signed into law by Bill Clinton in 2000, as we argued in chapter 3 of our e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal. The disconnect between real supply and demand for crude and the influence […]
December Polyolefin Price-Rise Bid Will Fail
By John Richardson and Malini Hariharan in Shanghai A TWO-TIER China polyolefin market had developed in China over the last couple of years – but the $64,000 question right now is: At which of these two levels will most business be settled during December? The ever-volatile Dalian Commodity Exchange determines the day-by-day sentiment, while overseas […]
Disneyland Economics And Planning For 2011
Please stop taking the Mickey.. Source of picture: China Daily By John Richardson ECONOMIC bubbles have been given their name for a good reason: They behave exactly the same as the soap bubbles that were prevalent at Hong Kong’s Disneyland, where I paid with my three-year-old son yesterday. So when the momentum of rising […]
A Downturn With Areas Of Persistent Strength
Tougher sanctions set to reduce Iranian exports Source of picture: amix.dk/blog/post/19116 By John Richardson I met a hedge-fund manager yesterday who wanted a straight answer as to why he felt that ethylene, propylene and polyolefin margins are holding-up relatively well, despite an apparent flood of new capacity. “The margins, particularly for polyproplyene (PP), are much […]
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