By John Richardson TODAY is Republic Day in India and so I hope that what comes next will not be seen as overly negative. But I think it is essential, as the New Normal develops, that we have an open and frank debate about the biggest economic challenge and opportunity that we all face over […]
Asian Chemical Connections
India’s Budget: The Toilet Test
By John Richardson IT was fantastic news to hear that Narendra Modi, in his first budget as Prime Minister, has repeated his pledge of ensuring that every Indian has access to a toilet by 2019. But will he follow through on this pledge? We sincerely hope so as tackling this one big issue should define […]
“Fragile Five” Now “The Exposed Eight”
By John Richardson IT used to be just the “Fragile Five” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. But last week, the Financial Times, drawing on data and analysis from Schroders, added three more countries to the list of those most-exposed to Fed tapering: Hungary, Poland and Chile. Thus we needed a new handy […]
China’s Overshadowing Economic Importance
By John Richardson AS we head into this weekend’s crucial November plenum , it is worth remembering that there is no chemicals and polymers market to compare with China’s in volume terms anywhere else in Asia. Take polyproplyene (PP) as just one example. Industry estimates are that China’s consumption totalled around 16m tonnes in 2012. Its […]
China Market Intelligence Still Contradicts PE Demand Rise
By John Richardson The debate continues as to exactly why polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (domestic production plus imports) in China rose by 13% in January-June of this year compared with the same period in 2011. Why the anxiety? Because most of the industry people that the blog speaks are still finding it difficult to match […]
Holding India’s Leaders To Account
Source: ICIS Consulting By John Richardson It has now become widely recognised that India is in serious trouble. The consensus has shifted over the […]
Asia, The Fed And Swimming Naked
By John Richardson WHEN the tide eventually goes out, we will find out who has been swimming naked. This will also be the case in several emerging markets, ex-China, when the Fed eventually draws down its stimulus. Hot money seeking higher returns has flowed into India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia, for example, […]
India PVC Growth In Context
By John Richardson INDIAN polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand is expected to increase by 13-14% in the financial year ending 31 March 2013 compared with just 3% growth in 2011-2012. This is further evidence that, just perhaps, the decline in the country’s overall macro-economic environment has bottomed out. “In volume terms, consumption will reach around 2.25m […]
What India Power Cuts Indicate
By John Richardson India, along with China, seems unlikely to deliver the contribution to global economic growth expected by the International Monetary Fund as late as April of this year (see above chart). In the case of India, last week’s power cuts that affected more than 600 million people, point to deep structural problems that […]
Chems Trade Protectionism On The Rise
By John Richardson TRADE protectionism in chemicals is set to rise during 2012 as a result of a weaker global economy, warned a trade lawyer who specialises in the chemicals industry. “There was a 30-40% increase in the total number of anti-dumping cases in Europe in 2011 over the previous year, and I think this […]