By John Richardson TEN years, a Japanese contact told me, “When we eventually work out the right set of economic policies to get us out of our problems, we will all get behind those policies.” I gave him a call last week to update our discussion and he said, “The good news is we […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The Failure Of Abenomics Should Be No Surprise
By John Richardson The steepest decline in Japanese industrial production since March 2011 has shocked some commentators. We cannot understand why. “Industrial output dropped 3.3% in June from May, the trade ministry said today in Tokyo, more than twice the median forecast for a 1.2% contraction in a Bloomberg News survey of 31 economists. The […]
The Perils Of An Even Weaker Yen
By John Richardson YOU cannot turn 65-year-olds into 35-year-olds, no matter how much central bank stimulus you throw at the problem. This is why the real, underlying problem with Japan is its demographics which make all the current attempts to stimulate its way to stronger local growth pretty much futile. If there are not enough […]
Northeast Asia Confronts PVC Consolidation
By John Richardson ASIAN higher cost polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producers are facing the twin squeeze of increased electricity costs and very competitive exports from the US, according to an industry source the blog met with in Taipei, ahead of tomorrow and Friday’s 2013 Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC). Such is the pressure on the Japanese, […]
Asia Faces More Asset Bubbles
Marc Faber Source of picture: http://www.cliffkule.com/2011_06_26_archive.html By John Richardson RECENT action by Western central banks will result in more hot money flowing into Asia, creating further asset-price bubbles. Last week, the Fed launched QE3 and the previous week, the European Central Bank launched its bond-buying programme. Equity markets in China could also surge by 10-20 […]
Northeast Asia PE Weakest Margins
Source: ICIS pricing Weekly Asian PE Margin Report By John Richardson The slide above shows how Northeast Asian naphtha-based polyethylene (PE) producers are struggling as a result of the weak China market (dark blue bars). And it confirms what we were discussing yesterday: The US, with its ethane advantage and with reportedly high […]
The Changing Landscape For Manufacturers
The New Normal involves three major transformations in the nature of consumer markets, which are: • The increasing size of the New Old 55+ age group in the West. • Too many young people struggling with higher unemployment. • Large number of people moving out of poverty in the developing world. These are the […]
Asia refining: tough times ahead
By Malini Hariharan The going has been good for the refining industry this year but analysts are predicting a weaker 2012 and 2013. UBS for instance, expects complex refining margin in Asia to fall 20% in 2012 from the average $8/bbl forecast for 2011. And it expects 2013 to be even weaker with average margin […]
Japan Disaster: Plants and markets update
By Malini Hariharan Japan’s benzene supply is expected to drop by 10% following plant shutdowns and diversion of product for gasoline blending, reports my colleague Mahua Chakravarty. This works out to about 40,000 tonnes/month, which is lower than the initial estimate of 100,000 tonnes/month made immediately after the earthquake. Traders have started booking cargoes from […]
PX/PTA prices spike as supply dries up
By Malini Hariharan The paraxylene (PX)-purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market appears to be bearing the brunt of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Spot supplies of PX have dried up following the shutdown of three Japanese plants with a total capacity of 950,000 tonnes/year. Spot PX prices surged to a record high $1,815/tonne CFR Taiwan last […]
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