By John Richardson AN interesting new report from Morgan Stanley underlines what we have been hearing about Chinese chemicals demand. The investment bank writes: “We returned to China and offer a revised message versus our trip last year. Instead of a ‘pause” in growth’, we now see a structural slowdown. China is in the midst […]
Asian Chemical Connections
It All Depends On Your Time Frame
By John Richardson HOW long a recovery lasts is always relative to your investment horizons. For example, if you are a day trader in the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contract in linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), a rebound might only need to last 24 hours for you to make money. And if you are trading in […]
Morgan Stanley Bullish Again
By John Richardson MORGAN Stanley has once again produced a very bullish forecast for China’s polyethylene (PE) market. The investment bank was famous for devising the SuperCycle theory in late 2010. It failed to take into account clear signs that 2011 was going to be a bad year. Version 2.0 of its bullish view on the industry assumes that 2011 was so […]
HSBC: Speculation Adds $30 To Oil
By Malini Hariharan GROWTH in China and other leading economies has slowed and oil prices have slipped but analysts are predicting strong prices for the rest of 2011 and 2012. Their reasoning is based on continued speculative activity in this commodity and geopolitical risks in the Middle East . HSBC’s recent report on this subject estimates […]
Oversupply In Petchems Still On The Way
Perhaps not just yet…. By John Richardson COULD it be that some chemicals industry players and observers, in the great galloping rush to join the supercycle stampede, have got ahead of themselves in predicting that we are already through the bottom of the margins trough? This distinct possibility was raised by Joe Duffy, consultant with […]
South Korea To Raise C2 Capacity By 9.2 Percent
By John Richardson SOUTH Korea is set to raise its ethylene and propylene capacities by 700,000 tonne/year and 740,000 tonne/year by 2013, Seo Kyung Sun, executive director of the consulting business of Seoul-based Chemical Market Research Inc (CMRI) told the blog last week. Downstream expansions in polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) […]
Supercycle Claims Dismissed
By John Richardson THE Morgan Stanley Supercycle report, which we first blogged on last Friday, has created a big stir among the blog’s contacts. Click herefor a copy of the report RI_PETROCHEM_BLUEPAPER2010.pdf As we said in this ICIS news article on both the Morgan Stanley report, and one from Merrill Lynch which is in a similar […]
Petrochemicals Supercycle On The Way – Morgan Stanley
Watch out for the charging bulls… Source of picture: sbynewsblogspot.com By John Richardson A FEW senior industry executives told the blog as long as a year ago that a petrochemicals supercycle was on the way as a result of lack of new supply post-2011 and booming emerging markets demand growth. The babble of […]
US Polyethylene Competitiveness To Surge in 2012
George Mitchell of Devon Energy – The “Father of Shale Gas” By John Richardson US polyethylene (PE) input costs will be 50% less than those in Europe and Asia beyond 2012, says a new report by Morgan Stanley. The extraordinary gap in competitiveness is the result of the shale gas revolution that has sharply reduced […]
China Inflation Threat To Chemicals
Sky-high living costs? Source of picture: www.shanghaiist.com By John Richardson CHINA’S imports surged by 55.9 per cent last December, raising concerns among chemicals traders and producers that this points to increasing inflationary pressure and a possible interest-rate hike later this year. The country’s current official borrowing rate stands at 5.31%. “The government has […]
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