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Asian Chemical Connections

China’s November Plenum: The Verdict So Far

By John Richardson THE November Plenum is over and now the analysis has begun. Some commentators view the formal communiqué about the plenum – which was released by the government on Tuesday – with tremendous enthusiasm. Others, however, are disappointed, while a third group of commentators are sitting on the fence. This might not seem […]

The US Needs A Plenum

By John Richardson CHINA’S crucial November plenum has now finished and so far there are no details on policy decisions. All we have had is a brief communiqué, which includes key phrases such as “deepening reform” and “crossing the river by feeling the stones”. This latter phrase underlines our argument that reform will be trial […]

China’s Demographics: What Is Your Contingency Plan?

By John Richardson DEMOGRAPHICS shape demand – everywhere, including in China, as we have been discussing since 2011. Here are a few facts about China’s demographics challenge – from this outstanding Financial Times article by David Pilling – which chemicals company executives need to print out and pin up on their boardroom walls as China heads […]

China’s Overshadowing Economic Importance

By John Richardson AS we head into this weekend’s crucial November plenum , it is worth remembering that there is no chemicals and polymers market to compare with China’s in volume terms anywhere else in Asia. Take polyproplyene (PP) as just one example. Industry estimates are that China’s consumption totalled around 16m tonnes in 2012. Its […]

China PE Market Strength Questioned

Dear blog reader – a  technical error, beyond our control, means that we are unable to upload the tables and graphs for today’s post. Watch out next week, as, when the problem has been solved, we will add the missing tables and graphs. Apologies….   By John Richardson THE sustainability of the strength in China’s […]

China’s Debt Crisis Comes To A Head

By John Richardson HOW much longer will China’s central government continue to kick the can down the road? The answer to this question might well turn out to be the biggest single determinant of chemicals and polymers demand growth over the next few years. When the great rebalancing really kicks  in, the wind could be […]

China’s September Trade Data Shows Real Direction

By John Richardson EVIDENCE that decoupling might be a myth has grown with the release of China’s September export data. Exports to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region fell 9.8% by value in September 2013 compared with the same month in 2012. Part of the explanation for the decline is the “over-invoicing” fiddle […]

China, The November Plenum And De-Stocking

By John Richardson THE end of China’s Golden Week holidays, which ran from 1-7 October, has represented an opportunity for some polyolefins traders. “Stocks were low before the holidays, and, as a result, once business activity resumed in earnest on 10 October, we have seen a considerable uptick in buying from the converters,” said one […]

Construction Drives China 2013 PE Growth

By John Richardson THE blog has been banging its head against a brick wall for several months now in an an effort to fully explain why polyethylene (PE) apparent demand growth has been so strong during most of 2013. Interviews with well over 20 producers, traders, end-users and market analysts (to be honest, we have […]

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