By John Richardson CHINA may have pressed the panic button again. If the extraordinary rise in January lending is sustained, this would represent the third time in recent history that China has opened the floodgates on new credit. A sustained upswing in lending would obviously result in stronger chemicals pricing, margins and demand. Further upward […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Search for votes in 2020 US presidential battleground states may wreck trade deal
By John Richardson A GOOD WAY of deciding whether or not the likely US/China trade deal will hold is to take a close look at the demographics in 15 potential battleground states in the 2020 presidential election. As of 2016, just ahead of the last presidential poll, David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report estimated […]
China’s fall in births and economic decline may be impossible to fix
By John Richardson CHINA’S official Lunar New Year postage stamp for 2019 shows a family of five happy pigs made up of two parents and three children. This is if course is the Year of the Pig and in Chinese culture pigs represent wealth and treasure. Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist, is amongst others who […]
China slowdown: Loss of 7m tonnes of global PP demand points to new investment model
By John Richardson CHINA’S influence on the world economy has grown to such an extent over the last decade that is now a bigger driver of growth than the US and the EU combined, says Eurizon SLJ Asset Management. The US impact on global GDP shrunk from just over 40% in 1989-1998 to half that […]
China purified terephthalic net exports to reach 2.7m tonnes by 2025
By John Richardson LET’S START with the good news first. ICIS Data and Analytics had expected China’s demand for paraxylene (PX) to grow by in 2018 at 5.6% over 2017, but instead I estimate growth at 9.2%. This was awesome news for the world’s major PX producers as the reason for the strong growth was […]
China slowdown threatens a million tonnes of lost styrene demand
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand (*see note below) for styrene in 2018 looks set to have increased by just 2.5% over the previous year. This would be the lowest percentage growth and the smallest addition of new demand in tonnes since 2012. This would compare with our earlier estimate of real demand growth of […]
Trade war fears return as US LLDPE becomes more exposed to China
By John Richardson THE ground has shifted under our feet once again. Just as it seemed as if the US and China would complete a trade deal by the 2 March deadline, the prospects of an agreement have suddenly diminished. This is the result of the Trump administration declining an offer from two Chinese vice-ministers […]
G20 trade deal is no deal unless a huge gap can be bridged
By John Richardson I PREDICTED that there could well be warm smiles, handshakes and some kind of trade deal at this weekend’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. But I added that the devil would be in the detail. The detail tells us that nothing has been agreed other than what Steve Okun of McLarty […]
US Risks Losing Access To 82% Of Global PE Consumption Growth, 80% Of Exports
By John Richardson PERHAPS this week’s low-level trade talks between the US and China shouldn’t only be judged on the basis that they are low level, involving officials of mid-level seniority who are therefore not empowered to achieve major breakthroughs. The talks on 22-23 August (23 August is when 25% Chinese polyethylene (PE) tariffs on […]
US PE Exports: Impact Of China Tariffs On Smaller Markets
By John Richardson LET US assume for downside planning purposes that the Chinese 25% tariffs against all US high-density polyethylene (HDPE) exports and 93% of US linear-low density (LLDPE) imports remain in place for the rest of this year and into 2019, once they come into force on 23 August. This might not happen, of […]