By John Richardson HERE is a quote for you: “Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.” This supports the argument we have been making over the last two months that human nature matters as much as data in helping us decide where oil prices are heading. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Crude Oil: How To Avoid A 2015 Budget Disaster
By John Richardson IF I knew the outcome of today’s crucial OPEC meeting in Vienna well, of course, I wouldn’t have to write this blog post to make a living. But what I do know is that oil markets, now that the Fed stimulus is being withdrawn, are beginning to function far better than they […]
Oil Market Risks For 2014
By John Richardson PAUL Satchell, the UK-based chemicals analyst with glob investment bank Cannacord Genuity wrote in his December Volume Proxy* report, which was released earlier this month: “It has long been our opinion that real demand fundamentals in commodity chemicals have been so poor since mid-2010 that inventory cycles have become the prime determinant of […]
Costly Oil Hurts US Industry
By John Richardson THE higher that oil prices go the more the US petrochemical industry’s margins have expanded. Petrochemical prices are oil-driven and, therefore, have to go higher as crude becomes more expensive, whereas the cost of shale gas-based ethane keeps on falling due to rising supply. US petrochemical producers are cracking increasing amounts of […]
Oil Prices, Wall Street And Economic Chaos
By John Richardson Crude oil and commodities markets have lost touch with the fundamental realities. This didn’t just happen yesterday, but began a decade ago. That’s the argument the blog put forward in the latest chapter of our new free eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – how the Western BabyBoomers are changing chemical […]
Saudi Petchem Production Threatens Recovery
By John Richardson RISING oil production in Saudi Arabia has resulted in bigger volumes of polyethylene (PE) being delivered into Asia-Pacific markets, a source with a major plastics processor told the blog late last week. “Saudi Arabia has definitely, in my view, already raised PE production on more availability of associated gas. I am seeing […]
European PE, PP below Euros1,000/tonne
By John Richardson JOURNALISTS are often accused of exaggeration for the sake a good story, but it is genuinely no exaggeration to say that markets are in free-fall. Last week we reported on how European polyolefin pricing was on a downward spiral. For example, my ICIS pricing colleague Stephanie Wilson wrote in this article: “We […]
Chemicals Buying & The IEA Decision
By John Richardson CHEMICALS and polymer demand looks even less likely to be supported by “buying forward” following yesterday’s decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release 60m barrels of crude into the market. Here is a bit of context first before we look at the implications of the IEA decision, which, along […]
Saudi Crackers Could Soon Be At 100%
By John Richardson SAUDI ARABIA’S crackers could soon be running at operating rates of 100% again following widespread reports quoting the al-Hayat newspaper that the country’s crude production is set to rise to 10m barrels a day in July. Al-Hayat, a Saudi newspaper, is seen as a reliable indicator of government intentions. We reported last week how […]
Saudi Petchem Output Increase
By John Richardson YESTERDAY’S fractious OPEC meeting – where members were unable to agree on a proposal by the four biggest members to raise output – may not necessarily be good news for petrochemicals. For a long time the industry has worried about Saudi Arabia’s potential to raise crude output from approximately 8.5m barrels a […]