By John Richardson THE PETRONAS and Saudi Aramco joint ventures in the RAPID refining-to-petrochemicals project in Malaysia may serve as a template for further “win/win deals”. Whilst these deals will substantially benefit the companies and countries involved, there are broader risks that I’ll discuss at the end of this blog post. Back in February, Aramco […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Reliance On Any China Polymer Deficit Will Not Work
By John Richardson THE “last big man standing’, as polyethylene (PE) was described to me during my visit to Shanghai last week, is widely expected to remain in major deficit in China for the next decade at least. As PE is the foundation of the cracker business – i.e. it is the main reason […]
The Risks Ahead For Polyethylene
By John Richardson TOO many people will look at the chart on the left and think, “Crisis? What crisis?” But glance to the right for what it is like in another petrochemicals value chain. What is happening on the right could sooner than you think be happening on the left: The polyethylene (PE) value chain […]
Changing Demand Is Demanding Better Answers
By John Richardson I HAVE spent the last two weeks travelling in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia and during that time, I didn’t meet one senior petrochemicals industry executive who talked in detail about demand. Instead, the focus of just about everything they wanted to discuss was supply. The big question on […]
ExxonMobil Highlights US Growth Challenge
By John Richardson WHEN somebody very senior in the petrochemicals industry makes a bold statement – one that pulls no punches – it is worth taking note. And so it is worth reading in full what Stephen Pryor, ExxonMobil Chemical president, said at the opening ceremony for ExxonMobil’s latest Singapore petchems complex on 8 January. […]
The Minority Isn’t Always Wrong
By John Richardson “I REALLY worry about the ability to export extra capacity from the US as I think global markets will become much more regional,” said a source with a poylolefins producer . “The US is also pretty much a saturated market because of high existing levels of polymers consumption [see the above graph] […]
Irrationality And Staying Solvency
By John Richardson JOHN Maynard Keynes, the famous economist and speculator , once said “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” In other words, if you are a trader you can sit around for ages waiting for the fundamentals to drive any particular market, and, as a result, go bust – […]
Adjusting Inventories To Lower China Growth
By John Richardson EXCESSIVE inventory building across a range of commodities in China, including petrochemicals, continues to worry the blog. One reason, as we discussed yesterday, might be that traders are in the midst of a liquidity squeeze as a result of the late June credit crackdown. They have therefore taken out further very-aggressive positions […]
Global Deflation
By John Richardson TEN trillion dollars doesn’t buy what it used to do, according to The Wall Street Journal. The reason is that despite central banks across the world aggressively expanding their balance sheets, there is no inflation. “My customers in China are worried about the opposite – global deflation because demand everywhere is so […]
India’s plastic problems
By Malini Hariharan A surprise court order in India earlier this month has put pressure on plastic packaging and has raised the risk of restrictions on its use in a very popular segment – cheap sachets or pouches that are used to pack a wide variety of consumer products ranging from shampoo to tobacco. The […]
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