By John Richardson NORTHEAST ASIAN (NEA) polypropylene (PP) producers are finding it increasingly difficult to export cargoes outside their region because of ample supply elsewhere and buyers’ reluctance to accept long delivery times. Freight costs have also spiked over the recent weeks, but container freight costs still seem workable on some routes. But when you […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global LLDPE demand in 2021-2025 faces major downward pressure from developing world crisis
By John Richardson IT USED TO BE the case that petrochemicals demand could be considered as a global whole. But this was before the pandemic. The failure of the rich world to adequately support the developing world in providing sufficient vaccines has led to a form of de-globalisation This is the divided chemicals world I’ve […]
China polyolefins demand in 2021 could be 6.5m tonnes lower than expected with imports a lot weaker
By John Richardson NOW we must be very careful here. Time and time again, Chinese polyolefins growth has defied the doom mongers. Just look at 2015 as a prime example, when, despite a mild economic downturn, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) consumption growth surprised on the upside, largely because of a surge in internet sales. […]
China PP demand improvement points to huge global dependence on just one country
By John Richardson AS I’VE BEEN arguing for the past ten years, the global petrochemicals industry is enormously, disproportionately, reliant on growth in and exports to just one country. No prizes, I am afraid, for identifying that country as China. My colleagues from our analytics and consulting team have calculated a remarkable summary of what […]
Asian and Middle East PP exporters lose ground in China but enjoy substantial US sales growth
By John Richardson CHINA’S imports of polypropylene (PP) look set to fall to some 4.4m tonnes in 2021 – a 33% reduction over last year’s imports of 6.6m tonnes. The China Customs department trade data for H1 2021 when annualised imply 4.7m tonnes of imports for the full year 2021. But as around 60% of […]
Global HDPE demand prospects dim on a slower developing world and China
By John Richardson THE DRAG ON global polyolefins growth from declining demand in the developing world will, I think, be much greater than I thought would be the case in March this year, when I did my last round of forecasts for 2021-2025 consumption. The core of the problem is in my view low vaccination […]
The developing world must be at the centre of every climate discussion and initiative
By John Richardson THE LATEST Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report makes grim reading if you support the science-based argument, as I do, that we are causing very serious damage to our climate. We must, in my view, start with how we talk about the climate change challenge if we are to solve this […]
China panic over a downturn in H2 2021 is as overcooked the H1 boom narrative
By John Richardson THERE is a lot of very unhelpful noise out there about China which is making it very difficult for petrochemical producers and buyers to see the real picture. But the noise is of great benefit to petrochemical and financial traders as, of course, noise accompanied by volatility is how traders make their […]
Every climate initiative must be road tested in the developing world – and adequate funding is essential
The views expressed in this blog are, as always, my personal views and do not represent the views of ICIS. As always, also, they are here to be challenged with alternative views supported by the data. Thank you! By John Richardson EVERY SOLUTION to the biggest challenges our industry faces – which of course are […]
China polyolefins demand declines accelerate as supply chains remain the key challenge
By John Richardson ONE OF THE golden rules that has nearly always applied over the last 20 years is that you never bet against the Chinese economy. Time and again, the doom mongers have been proved embarrassingly wrong. But we now have enough data and anecdotal evidence from 2021 to conclude that the deceleration in […]