China’s share of global demand growth in the seven big resins jumped to an astonishing 67% in 2002-2021. Northeast Asia ex-China’s share of demand fell to minus 1% with Europe and North America worth just 4% and 2% of growth respectively. The chemicals world had become dangerously lopsided.
Asian Chemical Connections
Naphtha markets underline why “Micawberism” is not the answer
The January-September 2022 multiple of BFOE crude prices per barrel over CFR Japan naphtha prices per tonne averaged just 7.9. The lowest multiple so far this year was 6.9 in August. The January-September 2022 average was the lowest annual average since our naphtha price assessments began in March 1990.
China zero-COVID: 2022 impact on local and global demand for nine major polymers
Instead of demand for the nine polymers growing by 7m tonnes in 2022 under our base cases, my downsides see consumption falling by 6m tonnes.
Petrochemicals health warning: beware of vanishing feedstocks
By John Richardson NEW STEAM cracker projects are still being announced on the assumption that they will still be needed 20 years and more from now – well beyond full depreciation. One could argue this is reasonable given that it took some 50 years, from the introduction of the Model T to the development of […]
Benzene, the need for a new global Industrial Revolution and the big challenges that lie ahead
By John Richardson THE CHART BELOW shows that 60% of global benzene production in 2021-2040 is forecast to be made via technologies linked to refining units that also make gasoline components. The 60% includes a 33% share for catalytic reformers that make toluene, mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene, referred to collectively as reformate. In the […]
The right analysis of China export data confirms moderate slowdown
By John Richardson STATISTICS, if you do not look at them in the right way, can be very misleading. This is the case with last week’s excitement about the growth in China’s June exports of manufactured goods. On a year-on-year basis, exports grew in dollar terms by 32.2% in June from a year earlier compared […]
As the drift towards a divided world continues, here are some climate change realities
Note that, as always, the views expressed here are personal. Thank you. By John Richardson Executive Summary The big Western energy companies – the International Oil Companies (IOCs) – are selling hydrocarbon assets as they strive to meet more aggressive emissions targets, some of which have been set by environmental activists. The assets are being […]
The multi-million dollar polymers opportunity: continued big regional price differentials
By John Richardson POLYMER BUYERS outside northeast (NEA) and southeast Asia (SEA) have a big opportunity to save millions of dollars on procurement costs during the rest of this year through purchasing more from the two regions. The opportunity has arisen because I believe that NEA and SEA polymer prices will remain very cheap relative […]
Boom in petrochemicals demand guaranteed but we must grow sustainably
By John Richardson ONE OF THE GREATEST achievements of the last 30 years has been the fall in the number of people living in extreme poverty. In 1999, 1.9bn of the world’s population were living on less than $1.90, the Word Bank’s definition of extreme poverty. Despite setbacks caused by the pandemic, this had […]
Environmental crises: no “silver bullet” solution but petchems must get this right
By John Richardson NO one-size-fits-all technological solution to the climate change and plastic waste crises is likely to work. What we will instead very probably see is a patchwork of solutions across regions and countries. This will be combined with what I believe must be common global regulatory approaches that everyone adheres to. I cannot […]