Comparative PE and PP pricing data between Vietnam and southeast asia – and the “spreads” numbers between China PE and PP prices and naphtha costs – suggest the China economy has yet to recover.
Asian Chemical Connections
China naphtha-to-polyolefins spreads data still show recovery yet to happen
RECOVERY? WHAT RECOVERY? Some market players are talking about a rebound in the Chinese economy, and, therefore, polyolefins demand, but the critically important spreads data continue to tell a different story. Nothing has changed from last week.
China’s post-lockdown economic rebound has yet to happen, according to the ICIS spreads data
At some point, polyolefins exporters to China and the local producers will regain pricing power. This will become apparent from a widening of spreads as economic activity returns to normal. It really is as simple as this. So, you need our data and analysis.
China polyolefins 2022 growth and import risks increase
WE HAVE BEEN here before, of course. In April 2020, pessimism abounded about China’s growth prospects that turned out to be unfounded because of the extraordinary strength of its post peak-pandemic recovery. But circumstances that led to the economic rebound in the second half of 2020 were very different.
China polyolefins: several years of history pass in just one week
LAST WEEK I challenged whether the longstanding “put option” for petrochemicals companies and investors would still apply to China 2022.
The put option rests on the well-proven notion that the worst things get in the short term, the better the immediate outlook because Beijing always rides to the rescue with big economic stimulus.
The challenge I posed to the put option was that China might only tinker around the edges of its Common Prosperity economic reforms.
Ukraine: Oil prices, lost petrochemicals demand, changing trade flows and the impact of the four megatrends
By John Richardson IF WE ARE involved in a new protracted Cold War, this will change just about everything for the petrochemicals industry. Or, of course, we could go back to the Old Normal. Corporate planners must therefore press on with drawing up short, medium and long-term scenarios and then apply these scenarios to tactics […]
China HDPE: Final review of 2021 and a further outlook for this year
Following on from my final review of China’s polypropylene (PP) markets in 2021 , along with a further outlook for the rest of this year, see below the same for high-density polyethylene (HDPE). I will complete the picture with reviews and outlooks for linear-low density PE (LLDPE) and low-density PE (LDPE) next week. By John […]
China PP in 2021: final review and further outlook for this year
By John Richardson The first point to make as I write a final review of China’s polypropylene (PP) market in 2021 – also including a further outlook for the rest of this year – is that ICIS supply and demand and trade data is pure gold dust. The data inform commercial decisions that can save […]
Why China’s PP demand may only grow by 1% per year in 2022-2032
By John Richardson MOST people now accept that China’s real estate sector, worth some 29% of the country’s GDP, is deflating with significant long-term implications for petrochemicals growth. But because China’s GDP growth is very likely to still grow and because China’ existing demand is already so big the common view is that there is […]
China PP in 2022: either 3.6m tonnes net imports or 500,000 tonnes net exports!!
By John Richardson AGAIN, PLEASE DON’T SAY I DIDN’T WARN YOU. Regular readers of the blog will not be surprised in the slightest by the chart below. This is the first time northeast Asian (NEA) naphtha-based polypropylene (PP) margins have turned negative since we began our margin assessments in January 2014. Propane dehydrogenation-based NEA PP […]