By John Richardson FIRST of all, we were told that $100 a barrel, or thereabouts, was the natural price for oil. And then we were told this after the price collapse: “Not to worry, this is just a temporary supply glut. Output cuts will soon be sufficient to restore the price back to the region […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Oil Supply Rising On Efficiency Gains, Govt Policy
By John Richardson FOR most of the time from 2009 until the end of H1 2014, understanding what was going on in petrochemicals markets was pretty easy. The price of oil was stable in the region of $100 a barrel and so upstream costs were very predictable. This meant that you only really had to […]
Be Very Careful Of the $60-70 Oil “New Normal”
By John Richardson THERE is an argument being made that the recent stability in oil prices will continue as crude enters a “New Normal” of $60-70 a barrel. This type of thinking seems to have had an effect on petrochemicals markets – for example, in the key China polyethylene (PE) market. “Our customers in China […]
Oil Market Risks For 2014
By John Richardson PAUL Satchell, the UK-based chemicals analyst with glob investment bank Cannacord Genuity wrote in his December Volume Proxy* report, which was released earlier this month: “It has long been our opinion that real demand fundamentals in commodity chemicals have been so poor since mid-2010 that inventory cycles have become the prime determinant of […]
Only 4-6 US Cracker Projects Will Happen
By John Richardson ONLY 4-6 of all the above US cracker projects are likely to go ahead as realisation dawns that both demand and feedstock advantage might not be as strong as previously thought, an industry source told the blog. “First of all, companies need to factor into demand and supply forecasts the possibility that […]
Energy, Politics & Economics
Source of graph: http://thinkprogress.org/ By John Richardson DANIEL Yergin’s superb book, The Prize, describes how the history of the 20th century was shaped by oil and gas. Now we are entering a new era. Some 600,000 jobs have already been created by the US shale and oil gas revolutions, leading to hopes of […]
North America’s Oil and Gas Potential
By Malini Hariharan The energy landscape in North America is rapidly changing. After shale gas the focus has shifted to rising oil production from various unconventional sources, which has prompted some commentators to predict that the region will regain its status as a major global producer. In a new report, analysts at Citibank confidently predict that […]
Oil Prices And Demand Destruction
By John Richardson THE danger that high oil prices pose to the global economy, and therefore, of course, petrochemicals demand, has been highlighted by a new report from HSBC. It makes the point that quantitative easing, which has led to investors fleeing a weaker dollar into commodities, is a major contributory factor behind the rally […]