By John Richardson THE CHART BELOW shows that 60% of global benzene production in 2021-2040 is forecast to be made via technologies linked to refining units that also make gasoline components. The 60% includes a 33% share for catalytic reformers that make toluene, mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene, referred to collectively as reformate. In the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China panic over a downturn in H2 2021 is as overcooked the H1 boom narrative
By John Richardson THERE is a lot of very unhelpful noise out there about China which is making it very difficult for petrochemical producers and buyers to see the real picture. But the noise is of great benefit to petrochemical and financial traders as, of course, noise accompanied by volatility is how traders make their […]
The right analysis of China export data confirms moderate slowdown
By John Richardson STATISTICS, if you do not look at them in the right way, can be very misleading. This is the case with last week’s excitement about the growth in China’s June exports of manufactured goods. On a year-on-year basis, exports grew in dollar terms by 32.2% in June from a year earlier compared […]
China styrene demand faces annual decline while imports could fall by 38%
By John Richardson SINCE FEBRUARY this year the ICIS petrochemical data has pointed to a significant slowdown in Chinese economic growth. Data on petrochemicals are always an excellent barometer to the health of any wider economy. The reason is that petrochemicals are used in nearly all manufacturing chains and in many service sectors. China’s slowdown […]
China early data points to 42% fall in 2021 HDPE imports
By John Richardson China’s high-density polyethylene (HDPE) imports in 2021 look as if they might collapse versus last year, according to the early data for this year (see the above chart). The same could apply to polypropylene (PP) and styrene monomer (SM) imports, as I discussed earlier this week. The potential 40% decline in HDPE […]
China’s polyethylene imports set to remain very strong in 2021
By John Richardson DEMAND, as I discussed on 11 February, will not be a problem for the global polyethylene (PE) business in 2021. We could see a continuation of the pandemic-related demand patterns we saw in 2020 if say problems with variants of the virus prevent us from moving significantly closer to herd immunity. The […]
Petrochemicals and demand: a deer caught in the headlights
By John Richardson THE THING is, as I discussed in my 9 February blog post, we simply do not have our hands on the data. Unless we improve our access to data, and greatly ramp up our ability to process and analyse the numbers, the petrochemicals industry will remain largely in the dark on demand. […]
China petrochemicals overstocking likely substantial as Q1 slowdown risks increase
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart on the left – showing average month-on-month percentage increases in China’s polypropylene (PP) imports in 2009-2019 versus the pattern in 2020 – underlines my argument that the production and export-led recovery that China enjoyed last year was part of a government plan. You can see the same pattern in […]
New China pandemic outbreak China single-biggest risk for global petchems in 2021
By John Richardson CHINA FACES another test of its pandemic control capabilities because of new outbreaks in Hebei and Heilongjiang provinces. On Wednesday, China recorded its first coronavirus death in eight months in Hebei. From an economic perspective, the good news, as CNBC reported, was that “Heilongjiang accounted for just over 1% of China’s GDP […]
Exporters of PP and SM to China seem to have options other than shutdowns, but not PX exporters
By John Richardson DIFFICULT choices lie ahead for exporters of polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene (PX) to China. From next year onwards, the country’s imports will start to decline and by 2023-2025 complete self-sufficiency may be reached in all these products. Just how significant this shift will be for global markets, we can […]