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Oil Price Recovery: Please Remember 2015

By John Richardson EVEN if oil prices should go down right now, based on supply and demand fundamentals, the financial players will not let that happen. This is the view of several analysts who point to the closure of numerous short positions, in favour of opening long positions, over the last few weeks. In time-honoured […]

Petrochemicals And The End Of The Commodities Supercyle

By John Richardson YESTERDAY I suggested that a “permanent study group” should be established by the US petrochemicals industry, and very probably industries in other regions, that would focus solely on all the evolving implications of the New Normal. So what should be this study group’s first topic for consideration? How about the implications of […]

Selling To The Base Of The Pyramid

By John Richardson As the slide above slows, some four billion of the world’s population earn very low incomes indeed. It would be tempting to give up trying to sell to these people, as, from a Western chemicals and polymers producers perspective, the effort might not seem worth the meagre returns. But as this fascinating […]

US Petchems “Double Peak” Theory

Wall Street rounding up investors? Source of picture: Rex Features   In a guest blog post, Joseph Chang, the global editor of our magazine, ICIS Chemical Business, echoes our own concerns that it is getting very frothy out there. The “this time it will be different” school of thought sems to be controlling the sentiment […]

If You Build It They May Not Come

By John Richardson “You cannot just sit back and expect things to happen the way they have happened in the past, especially in emerging markets.” This insight from a senior Asian-based executive with a global polyethylene (PE) producer highlights the risks faced by the global industry as we transition to the New Normal. The executive […]

Morgan Stanley Bullish Again

By John Richardson MORGAN Stanley has once again produced a very bullish forecast for China’s polyethylene (PE) market. The investment bank was famous for devising the SuperCycle theory in late 2010. It failed to take into account clear signs that 2011 was going to be a bad year. Version 2.0 of its bullish view on the industry assumes that 2011 was so […]

When I’m 64

Will you still need me? Will you still feed me? The Beatles asked the right questions back in 1967, when singing ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ on their iconic Sergeant Pepper album. What would happen to the Western BabyBoomers when they became 64? Would they be about to die, as had been the case with previous generations? […]

There Is No Going Back

By John Richardson “IF we build polymer capacity in India the demand will come,” a very senior industry executive told the blog last year. He amplified this statement by explaining that greater availability of plastics would always stimulate strong demand growth for low-end packaging materials etc in emerging markets in general, as the poor became […]

European Markets Weaken Further

By John Richardson THE dreadful state of European polyolefin markets became even more evident late last week as prices continued their declines. Discussions on further reductions in European olefin contract prices were also set to begin today. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) spot prices have now fallen by Euros80-150/tonne in June, […]

Chemicals And The Removal Of The Punch Bowl

By John Richardson LUNCH with a chemicals analyst yesterday, during the blog’s latest trip to Singapore, gave an intriguing glimpse into the world of those who invest in the chemicals industry. “The Morgan Stanely “Supercycle” report (which the blog wrote about late last year) seems to be on every fund managers desks,” he said. “These […]

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