DEMOGRAPHICS SHAPE petrochemicals demand. As we consider the future, evaluate the different challenges of the G20’s Rich but Old, Poor & Old and Poor & Young G2O groups of countries.
Asian Chemical Connections
How increased global trade tensions could shape China’s PP exports and operating rates
China could either see average annual net imports of 5m tonnes in 2024-2030, net exports of 2m tonnes a year or be in a balanced position. A lot will depend on trade barriers.
Exporters of HDPE lose estimated $1.1bn of China sales in H1 2023
Total estimated losses by eight of the major HDPE exporting countries in sales to China was $1.1bn in H1 2023 versus H1 2022.
Demographics, sustainability and 1bn tonne less global polymers demand
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
Decarbonisation, the timing of the end of this downcycle and building future growth
BECAUSE the old certainties of strong demand growth in China and elsewhere are over, sustainability must be at the core of new petrochemicals growth models.
Interest rate “lag effect” and the risks for China’s ethylene glycols market
IT ALL CHAOS AND MUDDLE out there: China’s ethylene glycols demand could either grow by 10% in 2023 or contract by 5%.
A flood of PP no matter how what the 2023-2025 demand growth
EVEN if China’s PP demand growth is 14% this year – double our forecast – and growth in other regions is higher than we expect:
Global capacity in excess of demand would be 18m tonnes in 2023 compared with a 8m tonne/year average in 2000-2022,
Your complete and updated outlook for global polyethylene in 2023
The strength of China’s post zero-COVID recovery in 2023 will be crucial, as will local operating rates as self-sufficiency further increases.
Another important factor: European gas supply next winter and the effect on local PE production.
Assessing confidence and the China PE demand recovery: More scenarios are needed
Scenario 2, my preferred scenario, would see China 2023 PE demand at approximately 38.5m tonnes – an average of 2% higher across the three grades than in 2022.
China PE market in 2023: Recovery threatened by economic inequality, real estate decline
Under Scenario 1, China’s PE demand in 2023 would total 39.1m tonnes, 4% higher than last year; Scenario 2 would see demand at 36.4m tonnes, 3% lower; and Scenario 3 would involve a contraction of 5% to 35.7m tonnes.