By John Richardson BRENT crude futures surged by 80% during the second quarter and enjoyed their best three months since 1990, when, during the first Gulf War, they jumped by 142%. The market, as I discussed last month, has been heavily supported by China buying lots of oil when prices were cheap. As Reuters reports, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China could be in complete polypropylene self-sufficiency by 2022
By John Richardson SORRY to labour the point but this comes from a genuine concern for the readers of this blog, including many of our valued ICIS customers: the above chart, if you have been following the blog over the last six years, should come as no surprise. You may, as a result, already have […]
Asian polyethylene price recovery faces multiple challenges
By John Richardson THERE are reports of significant cuts in Middle East polyethylene (PE) operating rates because of reduced availability of associated ethane gas feedstock, the result of lower oil output. Combine this with the official Chinese government narrative of a strong recovery in the local economy, along with the emergence of much of the […]
China’s long-term ambition for paraxylene self-sufficiency seems close to being realised
On Friday, I examined how China’s paraxylene (PX) net imports could fall to as little 8m tonnes in 2020 from last year’s 16m tonnes. This would have major negative implications for the big exporters to China such as South Korea, Japan and India. I believe this is the beginning of a long-term shift – the […]
China’s big declines in 2020 PX and PP imports: the impact on its major trading partners
By John Richardson CHINA’S refineries and petrochemicals plants came roaring back to almost full production in April as the country’s coronavirus lockdown came to an end, even though downstream manufacturing was a long way from full recovery. As of last week, I was told by my contacts in China that petrochemicals and polymers buyers were […]
Paraxylene demand collapses as higher China production threatens 6m tonne fall in imports
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you that a decline in stock markets would happen. The post-March rally in equities was never going to be sustainable because of the enormous size of the damage to the real economy. We may see rebounds, of course, as we did on Friday as extreme volatility is […]
Main Street versus Wall Street and the crisis in the developing world
By John Richardson RISING equity and oil markets do not necessarily point to a V-shaped recovery. I know I’ve said this on several previous occasions, but it is critically important that petrochemicals companies and their customers see through the fog. I therefore need to re-emphasise the risks ahead. This useful article from The Guardian presents […]
Why the EU could become polyethylene self-sufficient in the post-pandemic world
By John Richardson ONE OF the many unknowns about the post-pandemic world is the extent to which the backlash against plastic rubbish will be revived. I certainly hope it is revived, otherwise, combined with climate change, our future looks pretty grim. How will the public – and thus those legislators who need to be elected […]
Polyethylene producers must avoid repeating the mistakes of Q1
By John Richardson AFTER a very challenging first quarter, nobody wants to make further write-downs on the value of raw materials and finished-product inventories. But this is the risk for any polyethylene (PE) producer who believes the recent rallies in equity markets and oil prices are leading indicators for the strength of the real economy. […]
Coronavirus, impact on the developing world and the scale of demand losses
By John Richardson ALL OF us are struggling to come to terms with a collapse in the global economy that is poised to be worse than the Great Depression – in Britain’s case its deepest recession since the “Great Frost” of 1709. In the US, Wall Street analysts expect the US unemployment rate to still […]