Growth slowdown underway

The OECD produces useful leading indicators each month, which try to capture turning points in the global economy. Its industrial production indicator is very relevant to chemicals, as 85% of demand comes from this sector.

The latest outlook is summarised in Kevin Swift’s ACC report. The blue line is actual global industrial production, whilst the red line represents the OECD’s indicator. This is based on OECD countries plus the 6 main non-OECD countries. Kevin comments that November’s indicator ‘showed a marked deceleration’ versus previous data.

In terms of individual OECD countries, the indicator suggests a downturn now seems to be underway in the US, Germany and the UK, with Japan, France, Canada and Italy slowing down. China and Brazil are still expanding, Russia is improving, but India now appears to be weakening.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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