The graph the Bank of England didn’t publish


Every 3 months, the Bank of England publishes its Inflation Report. This is packed with useful charts and commentary on just about every aspect of the world economy. It also normally includes the Bank’s own indicator of where UK house prices are headed. This is based on surveys by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, and figures from the main lenders. But this quarter, the chart did not appear.So as housing is such an important component of chemical industry sales, I thought I would develop a replica of the missing chart, which is shown above. Based on the latest RICS survey, this suggests that UK house prices are heading for at least a 5% fall this year in real terms. Unsurprisingly, this figure is very similar to the official government forecast contained in the brief that the Housing Minister, Caroline Flint, inadvertently showed to the press this week.

So why was the Bank so coy? Surely its job is to maintain open communications in bad times as well as good? Presumably the government asked for it to be withheld. But why did the Bank agree?

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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