UK government expects house price falls


Yesterday the UK public had a rare view of what the government really thinks about future house price trends. Photographers snapped Housing Minister Caroline Flint arriving for a Cabinet meeting. And then journalists went to work on reading the notes in her hand.

Contrary to official statements, it seems that the government expects ‘sizeable falls in prices later this year – at best down 5 – 10% year-on-year‘ (my italics). Her notes went to add that ‘we can’t know how bad it will get’. I noted last month that the UK was ‘at risk of a US-style housing slump’, and it now seems that the UK government shares my view. This is clearly not good news for future chemical sales, as housing is such a major source of demand.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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