Is this a V, U, W, or L-shaped recession?

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There is now general agreement that we are in a global recession. The World Bank’s new ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report expects global GDP growth of only 2.5% this year, and just 0.9% growth for 2009.

This is well below the 3% level that signals recession. And the Bank also forecasts that world trade will contract in 2009, for the first time since 1982.

The key question is therefore how long this recession will last? The blog’s research has highlighted 4 main scenarios:

V-shaped. The optimistic view is that recovery is just round the corner. But this seems unlikely, given the headwinds of the credit crunch and looming over-capacity in many key chemical products.

U-shaped. This is the blog’s base case. It implies the recession bottoms in 2010/11, and then begins to recover. Early decisions to close high-cost plants, and cancel unnecessary new capacities, would also be required.

W-shaped. This is often seen in serious recessions. Severe destocking leads to an apparent early recovery, as the value chain restocks. But demand then slips back again, before properly recovering.

L-shaped. This is the worst case scenario, as it implies demand could fail to recover by 2011, and might instead remain at a low level. This would mirror Japan’s experience post-1990.

The blog’s view is that it would be very optimistic for companies to plan on the basis that this recession will be V-shaped, as in 2002/3 and 1997/8.

Instead, it shares the view of a senior BASF executive, who has reportedly said he had “hoped it would be a U-shaped recovery (as in the early 1980’s and 1990’s), but now thinks it could become L-shaped”.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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