China’s lending causes central bank headache

China lendFeb10.pngNo wonder alarm bells were ringing in China’s central bank last week. The above chart (from China Daily) shows how total lending rebounded to $204bn in January, only 14% below the 2009 level.

Total lending doubled during 2009 to $1.4bn, an astonishing amount for a country with total GDP of $4.3trn. Of course, this enabled China to easily reach its target of 8% GDP growth. But it also led to higher inflation, and a surge in house prices, which rose 11%.

The government now aims to cut lending by 22% versus 2009, to help keep inflation under control. January’s lending figure was clearly too high for comfort, causing the central bank to order an unexpected rise in banks’ reserve ratios on Friday, just before the Lunar New Year holiday.

Further tightening is probably inevitable. Chemical companies therefore need to carefully reassess likely levels of Chinese demand for their products, given that key elements of last year’s major stimulus programmes may now start to be removed.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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