Major changes are underway in Western housing markets. They are generational in nature, meaning that we are starting to see a New Normal develop in terms of future demand patterns for chemicals and polymers. The past 30 years have seen Western leaders committed to the concept of a ‘property-owning democracy’. Both US President Reagan and […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Mubarak’s departure may weaken oil prices
History doesn’t repeat, but it sometimes rhymes. That was the insight of the famed American writer, Mark Twain. 2 weeks ago, this led the blog to highlight the similarities between the geo-political concerns then developing in Egypt, and the Israel/Iran stand-off which had marked the oil price peak in June 2008. We still cannot be […]
Super-fast computers lead financial markets under QE2
Super-fast computers continue to increase their role in financial markets. They first came into prominence in H2 2009, when the ‘correlation trade’ began. Their role is nothing to do with price discovery, the traditional market function. Instead, they trade on algorithms. Their aim is trade arbitrage opportunities between markets on a nano-second by nano-second basis. […]
New Normal workshop in Singapore on 24 February
The blog is excited to learn that there should be a good attendance for its first New Normal training Workshop in Singapore. This is being held in association with ICIS, on 24 February. The Workshop aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors that will impact the petrochemical market over the next few years: […]
US, European, auto buyers focus on price
US auto sales disappointed again last month. As the chart shows, January (red square) came in well below the 1.1m level that was normal during the Boom years. And even this 819k sales level required major increases in incentives. GM, of course, was focused on stabilising its stock price after the IPO, so it needed […]
Boom/Gloom Index at a crossroad
The blog’s Boom/Gloom Index presents a fascinating picture this month. The main Index (blue column) remains strongly positive, in keeping with the solid performance of most stock markets. It confirms evidence from other sentiment indices that investors are optimistic about the outlook. But the Austerity index (red line) refuses to collapse. It is, of course, […]
International Year of Chemistry 2011
2011 has been named International Year of Chemistry by the United Nations. The date coincides with the centenary of Marie Curie winning the Nobel Prize for Chemistry. A range of activities is being planned on a national and international basis to support the Year. It gives the industry a welcome chance to promote the positive […]
‘Correlation trade’ keeps energy costs rising
After the events of the past few days in Egypt, it seems timely to look at the latest state of the ‘correlation trade’ currently ruling global financial markets. As the chart shows, prices for WTI crude oil (green line), continue to follow those of the S&P 500 (blue) in most remarkable fashion. The trade is […]
Oil prices – the Egypt factor
‘Budgeting for Uncertainty’ seemed the best title for the blog’s new White Paper. And already developments in the Middle East are suggesting this could have been a wise decision. As the above chart of average annual oil prices shows, the 1970 oil price was just $1.80/bbl in nominal terms (blue dotted line), equal to $9.94/bbl […]
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