Libya’s ethylene, propylene, methanol export position

Libya Mar11.pngUncertainty over the Libyan situation is raising questions over the potential impact to its exports. The blog’s IeC colleague, Bob Townsend, has therefore done a quick analysis of the 3 main products that might be impacted – ethylene and propylene (blue columns), and methanol (green, right hand scale).

As the chart shows, using data from Global Trade information Services, the EU is the largest buyer for all 3 products. Taking average 2008-10 volumes:

Ethylene. EU bought 64KT (55KT to Romania). Morocco bought 23KT.
Propylene. EU bought 73KT (Greece 43KT, Germany/Belgium 10KT). Egypt took 12KT, Indonesia 10KT.
Methanol. EU bought 418KT, with Italy 161KT, Spain 79KT, France 77KT, Greece 59KT the main consumers. Turkey bought 143KT.

These volumes can clearly be sourced elsewhere, although Mediterranean consumers will no doubt face increased voyage times. Hopefully this data will help those undertaking Scenario planning to determine how to minimise any disruption to their own positions.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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