Towards a New Normal, not a new Supercycle

New Normal logo.pngThe blog was in a minority of one when it launched its IeC Downturn Alert at the end of April.

But today, only a very few diehard optimists are still arguing the issue. GDP reports in Europe and the USA have shown virtually no growth in Q2, whilst China is clearly also slowing fast.

It is also hard to believe that until very recently, many analysts were arguing that a new Supercycle was already underway.

The blog remains convinced that we are in transition to a New Normal, not a new Supercycle. Next week sees the publication of chapter 4 of its new eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, co-authored with John Richardson.

This Chapter is titled ‘Where we are Headed’. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2021. We believe it will become essential reading for anybody who is concerned about where we are headed in the next few years.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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