The blog’s Christmas Quiz

Question mark.pngIts now 3 years since the Great Recession began.

US GDP is still below previous peaks, despite $5trn of stimulus spending and quantitative easing.

The position in the Eurozone is even worse.

China’s economy will be lucky to escape with a ‘soft landing’.

Policymakers seem to have lost the plot. They have forgotten, or maybe never realised, that demographics drive demand. Yet:

• 29% of the Western population are now aged 55+ and in the New Old generation
• China has lost 400m babies due to its ‘one child policy’ since 1978. These children are not now maturing and available to join the 25-54 cohort of Wealth Generators

What can be done to realign our thinking and policies to this Demographic New Normal? This is the blog’s 2011 Christmas Quiz question.

A failure to find the correct answer(s) will likely condemn countries to run deeper and deeper into debt, as policymakers try ever more desperately to return us to an economic SuperCycle that no longer exists?

The prize for correct entries will be a sustainable recovery in the global economy.

This will be based on Prof Michael Porter’s concept that “Shared Value will drive the next wave of innovation and productivity growth in the global economy”.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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One Response to The blog’s Christmas Quiz

  1. Ian 23 December, 2011 at 3:19 pm #

    Answer: Europe will become a tourist park for middle class Asians and all those wrinklies you mention will retrain as tourist guides.
    people who cant guide will move to Switzerland and live up a mountain away from it all.
    Merry Xmas
    Ian in Davos

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