Blog readers are often very successful people. So the blog thought you might like to know that the London house above is now on sale. A bargain at just £300m ($480m), the Financial Times reports it has 45 bedrooms on 7 floors and overlooks Hyde Park. Covering the area of a soccer pitch, it naturally […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Central bankers fail to learn the Wellington lesson
‘Masterly inactivity’ was Wellington’s policy in his successful European wars against Napoleon in the early 19th century. The English general was always under great pressure from the politicians to ‘do something’. But Wellington knew he had to defeat Napoleon decisively, and could not risk losing men and resources in irrelevant actions. His Waterloo victory then […]
Financial markets suffer despite stimulus programmes
The blog’s 6-monthly review of global financial markets highlights some interesting developments. It began 4 years ago, and was followed by the co-ordinated G-20 stimulus programme in March 2009. This ran out of steam by April 2011, leading the blog to launch its IeC Downturn Alert. The slide above shows market performance since then. The […]
US jobs, auto sales still below pre-Crisis levels
The above 2 charts show US jobs and car sales on a monthly basis, side by side. They cover the years 2008 – 12, and the combination provides a clear message about demand trends: • The jobs total began to improve in 2011 (green line) • They rose 2m between January 2011 and last month […]
“Those whom the gods wish to destroy…”
Writing over 2000 years ago, the ancient Greek dramatists had a phrase to describe what is happening today in the global economy: ‘Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad” Central banks have spent the last 4 years, since the Crisis began, handing out free money to their friends in financial markets. […]
Simplicity the key goal for bank regulation
Over the past 20 years, the financial sector has captured an increasing share of the wealth created by the rest of the economy. At its peak before the Crisis, it accounted for 40% of all profits in the US corporate sector, allowing financiers to claim they were ‘masters of the universe’. A key reason for […]
European ethylene volume at 1998 low
European olefin markets had a miserable time in Q2. As the chart shows, based on APPE data, ethylene production (red square) was just 4.7MT. This was the lowest Q2 volume since 1998. Of course, crackers had switched severity to produce more propylene and butadiene. But even propylene volume at 3.6MT was the lowest Q2 volume […]
Scenario planning for the future now essential
The 25 year economic Supercycle between 1982-2007 led to a major change in companies’ budget processes. They could simply assume that growth would be more or less constant. And so they were able to focus on their own specific product silos, and better understanding customer needs. Thus by the mid-2000s, for example, it was common […]
US housing stabilises, but Uncertainty remains high
Housing used to be the engine-room of the US economy. Rising prices allowed people to use their house as a cash machine. In turn, this drove GDP growth, as consumer spending is 70% of the US economy. But for the past 5 years, this process has gone into reverse: • Owners now have $9.18tn in […]
Oil prices jump as markets hope for more Fed cash
Markets spent last week ‘waiting for the Fed’. The high-frequency traders desperately need more cheap money, if they are to continue driving commodity and stock prices higher. And on Friday afternoon, they believed they got their wish. Brent crude oil prices jumped $1.92/bbl, and WTI $1.85/bbl. As the chart shows, the Fed’s 3 previous efforts […]
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