The IeC Downturn Alert launched on 2 May. Later that day, the US S&P 500 – the world’s most important stock index – hit a post-Crisis high of 1370. Last Friday, it closed down 7% at 1268 (purple dotted line above). Many expect this to be just a minor correction, and still believe a new […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s PE market slows further
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in Q1 was down 1.6%. Now the blog’s analysis suggests Jan-May demand was down 4% versus 2010 at 7.1MT. As the chart shows, based on data from Global Trade Information Services and ICIS: • Domestic production (blue) was up 5.6% to 4.3MT • Imports (red) were down 12% at 3MT • […]
Wimbledon rain not a health and safety issue
The blog’s old friend, Judith Hackitt, stirred up the media this week. She attacked the Wimbledon tennis authorities for stopping Centre Court TV broadcasts when the grass is wet, on ‘health and safety’ grounds. Hackitt now runs the UK’s Health and Safety Executive. She is clearly fed up with this trivialisation of health and safety. […]
An unmanaged Greek default gets closer
The Dominique Strauss-Kahn affair may come to be seen as a critical turning point, when the story of the Greek default is written. The then IMF head was en route to meet German Chancellor Merkel, when arrested in New York last month. He had been at the forefront of the campaign to pretend that Greece […]
55+ year olds will change chemical demand
Last week’s European New Normal seminar built on the successful Q1 launch in Singapore. Attendees came from a wide variety of businesses. This led to very lively discussion and workshops, as people debated the likely impact of the major demographic changes underway: • There was a 44% increase between 1970-2010 in the number of 25 […]
EU automakers worry about demand
The two-tier market for autos in Europe is worrying manufacturers. As the chart shows, May’s sales (red square) were well down on the 2005-9 period, and only 7% above 2010’s very weak number. They are a continuation of recent trends, where demand continues to be sustained by a few key countries: • Germany, France and […]
High stocks lead buyers to hold back purchases
Buyers’ behaviour has changed completely since the IeC Downturn Alert launched 7 weeks ago. ICIS news reported Friday a large polypropylene consumer commenting: “I am not buying a lot, just one or two trucks at a time. I kept a high stock level when prices were going up, so now I am using that up. […]
China’s inflation at new high, bank lending slows
The blog continues to worry about signs of a slowdown in China. Major commodity trader, Glencore, said this week “we see a pullback in China and it will continue“. This challenges the views of Dow CEO Andrew Liveris last month, and Rhodia CEO Jean-Pierre Clamadieu – who said last week he saw “no material signs […]
5th Asian Aromatics Conference in Singapore
The blog is delighted to be in Singapore next month, for its 5th Asian Aromatics & Derivatives Conference. It will be the ideal moment to review the challenges facing the industry, and develop plans for H2. As always, the Conference is being organised with ICIS, and features an excellent line-up of speakers: Shell’s Alexander Farina […]
Feldstein warns of potential for new US recession
There is worrying evidence that the US may be close to recession. This may seem unlikely to those who have only known the world of the past 25 years. Between 1982-2007, US recessions were very rare. They took place just 5% of the time, as the wealthy Western BabyBoomers led to a SuperCycle of ‘pent-up […]
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