US housing used to be one of the largest chemical markets in the world. In 2006 it was worth $35bn, with 2.2 million new homes each using $16k of chemicals, according to American Chemistry Council (ACC) estimates. Yet as the chart above shows, it has completely failed to recover since the financial crisis began: • […]
Chemicals and the Economy
The tide of European debt default keeps advancing
A thousand years ago, the Viking King Canute had himself carried into the sea by his courtiers. He was the most powerful king of his time. But by showing that he could not turn back the incoming waves, he hoped they would understand that he was not all-powerful. This is a lesson still to be […]
ExxonMobil suggests $60-$70/bbl oil
The CEO of ExxonMobil, Rex Tillerson, has provided powerful support for the blog’s long-held view that oil prices are well out of line with fundamentals. He told the US Senate that: “If you said: ‘If I had access to the next marketable barrel, what would it cost?’, its going to be somewhere in the $60 […]
European auto sales fall 4%
EU auto sales have been a two-speed market recently. Strong growth in Germany, France, Benelux and the Netherlands kept sales moving forward versus 2010 levels. But other key markets, including the UK, Spain and Italy have been weak. April’s sales suggest that this period is ending. But, as the blog has feared, the new trend […]
4 risks to petchem profits
Q1 results were very good. But do they mean we are in a SuperCycle, as some analysts have suggested? In a major 3 page article for this week’s ICIS Chemical Business, the blog looks in detail at the risk from developments in China, Japan, the debt crisis and high oil prices. It concludes that the […]
Time to check Downturn contingency plans
Two years ago, the blog began to survey global stock markets on what turned out to be the day they began their major rally. Its end-April launch of Downturn Alert may prove similarly fortuitous. Since then (shaded area), Brent crude oil is down 8%. Similarly naphtha is down 11%, benzene down 2%, HDPE 6% and […]
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal
The blog is delighted to announce the title of its new eBook, jointly authored with fellow blogger, John Richardson. It explains how Western BabyBoomers are changing chemical demand patterns, again. We believe it will become vital reading for all those working in the global chemical industry. The first chapter of the book will be published […]
Q1 results confirm impact of high oil prices
A month ago, the blog suggested that chemical companies would “report excellent results for Q1“. Its regular quarterly round-up, below, shows this expectation has been confirmed. The blog was also pleased to see Huntsman CEO, Peter Huntsman, warn about the growing risks from high oil prices, unemployment, and economic fragility. As it noted last month, […]
“Way too early” to talk of a US recovery
Consumer giant Reckitt Benckiser sell major brands in 200 countries around the world. CEO Bart Becht’s views on the current state of the retail market are therefore very troubling: “In Europe, the situation continues to be very, very weak. In North America, it also continues to be rather weak. It is marginally better than it […]
BASF warn on over-expansion and China
The blog was very interested to see a recent ICIS interview with Torsten Penkuhn, BASF’s petchem head in Asia, by Will Beacham. Penkuhn noted: “We are more and more concerned at BASF about an increasing risk of overbuilding once again. We currently see a risk that people are becoming too ambitious, enthusiastic and optimistic. And […]
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