The blog’s recent visit to Singapore included several discussions about the slow start to the New Year in China. And these concerns were confirmed last week in the downturn reported by the OECD’s leading indicators for China (Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development). Separately, as the chart shows, the Baltic Dry Index of ocean freight […]
Chemicals and the Economy
US auto companies lack pricing power
February’s data on US auto sales contained good news, and not such good news, for the chemical industry. • The good news was that sales were relatively strong, as the chart shows (red line), although still below levels seen in the 2005-8 period (black line). • And higher oil prices are supporting sales of more […]
Chemical companies report strong Q4 results
2010 was a remarkable year for chemical company profitability. Back in Q1, BASF’s Jürgen Hambrecht suggested that “the worst is behind us, even though dark clouds remain“. Results continued to improve in Q2, with Sinopec highlighting the importance of “state stimulus measures” in China. And by Q3, Dow were seeing “a sustained global recovery led […]
High oil prices, financial speculation, worry IEA
The IEA (International Energy Agency) is now very worried about the impact of today’s high oil prices on the global economy. Their chart above highlights the problem for the USA and EU. If oil prices average $100/bbl in 2011, then the EU (green column) will be paying more for its oil imports than in 2008, […]
Libya’s ethylene, propylene, methanol export position
Uncertainty over the Libyan situation is raising questions over the potential impact to its exports. The blog’s IeC colleague, Bob Townsend, has therefore done a quick analysis of the 3 main products that might be impacted – ethylene and propylene (blue columns), and methanol (green, right hand scale). As the chart shows, using data from […]
Young populations lead social unrest in MENA
Revolution and unrest have many causes. Very often, as now in the Middle East and N Africa (MENA), their strength is due to a wide range of economic, social and political factors combining to create a coalition of angry people. Age profile is also a key factor. As shown in the above chart, based on […]
Oil prices – the Libya factor
The blog’s recent White Paper, ‘Budgeting for Uncertainty’, warned that “geo-political issues have been quiet recently, but the potential for Middle Eastern conflict cannot be ignored, with its potential to impact oil supply and prices“. Just a few weeks later, they have now taken centre stage.Libya is the main issue, and events there are being […]
New Normal seminar successful in Singapore
The blog has had an exciting time in Singapore this week. 21 delegates had registered for the first-ever New Normal seminar, and we had a fantastic range of expertise in the room. Attendees came from China, India and Saudi Arabia, as well as from South East Asia. And they represented a wide range of industries, […]
OECD indicators signal slower growth
The OECD’s leading indicators for the global economy suggest that GDP growth is continuing to slow. As the above chart from the American Chemistry Council shows, the OECD’s three key indicators have all slipped from H1 2010’s peaks. The composite indicator (blue) has fallen sharply to +5% from +13%, whilst industrial production (red) is down […]
Europe sees 2-speed performance on auto sales
The blog is changing its chart for EU auto sales. The aim is to better show seasonal trends, and also enable easy comparison with US sales. It now shows sales by month, since 2005. Performance in 2007 (green line) and 2010 (brown) is highlighted, as this represents the peaks and troughs. January’s 1 million sales […]
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