US auto sales disappointed again last month. As the chart shows, January (red square) came in well below the 1.1m level that was normal during the Boom years. And even this 819k sales level required major increases in incentives. GM, of course, was focused on stabilising its stock price after the IPO, so it needed […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Boom/Gloom Index at a crossroad
The blog’s Boom/Gloom Index presents a fascinating picture this month. The main Index (blue column) remains strongly positive, in keeping with the solid performance of most stock markets. It confirms evidence from other sentiment indices that investors are optimistic about the outlook. But the Austerity index (red line) refuses to collapse. It is, of course, […]
International Year of Chemistry 2011
2011 has been named International Year of Chemistry by the United Nations. The date coincides with the centenary of Marie Curie winning the Nobel Prize for Chemistry. A range of activities is being planned on a national and international basis to support the Year. It gives the industry a welcome chance to promote the positive […]
‘Correlation trade’ keeps energy costs rising
After the events of the past few days in Egypt, it seems timely to look at the latest state of the ‘correlation trade’ currently ruling global financial markets. As the chart shows, prices for WTI crude oil (green line), continue to follow those of the S&P 500 (blue) in most remarkable fashion. The trade is […]
Oil prices – the Egypt factor
‘Budgeting for Uncertainty’ seemed the best title for the blog’s new White Paper. And already developments in the Middle East are suggesting this could have been a wise decision. As the above chart of average annual oil prices shows, the 1970 oil price was just $1.80/bbl in nominal terms (blue dotted line), equal to $9.94/bbl […]
PetroChina offer $1bn for INEOS European refining JV
INEOS have today announced that PetroChina have made an “irrevocable offer of $1.015bn for a 50% share in its European refining business“. This is an excellent price, given the current weak performance of the European refining industry. INEOS’ negotiating team have clearly done a superb job in ensuring that PetroChina looked beyond these difficulties, and […]
China’s PE imports slip: Middle East gains market share
China has been the main source of chemical and polymer demand growth over the past 2 years. But newly released trade data suggests its import volume on core products such as polyethylene may now be reducing, as more domestic capacity comes online. Equally, Asian producers, and the USA, face strong competition from low-cost Middle East […]
European ethylene at 82% operating rate in 2010
European operating rates (OR%) for ethylene averaged just 82% in 2010, according to APPE data this week. This meant there was no improvement over H1 OR%, suggesting the recovery from 2009’s 76% OR% has stalled. Of course, in terms of profitability, 2010 will have been a great year. The industry did its usual excellent job […]
US housing markets remain depressed
There was much discussion in the popular media of a possible US housing market upturn, during the blog’s visit last week. It was based on news of a 17% rise in building permits during December, often a leading indicator of future demand. But as the above chart shows, from the American Chemical Council’s weekly report, […]
Aromatics ‘spreads’ remain stable
Benzene has always been the blog’s favourite indicator for the economic outlook. It has the most number of applications, due to its head-start in being a major product when coal was the main feedstock. Equally, paraxylene (PX) is an excellent indicator of demand in emerging economies, as their rise in living standards leads to greater […]
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