Japan’s new government has embarked on a desperate gamble to restore economic growth after 2 decades of decline. Unfortunately, it is doomed to fail. The chart from the Financial Times, explains why. And the reason is very simple: One in four Japanese are now over the age of 65 And this proportion is continuing to rise, […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Demographics has “frightening implications” for the economy
The blog first wrote about the potential impact on GDP growth of changing demographics in January 2010, in its first White Paper, ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’ This put forward the Scenario that the world economy could face an: “L-shaped recovery, where we follow the pattern of the Japanese economy after its ‘financial bubble’ burst in 1990. […]
Time again to ‘Manage by Walking About’
Different times demand different skills. During the SuperCycle, one could assume growth was a constant. So forecasting meant a focus on better understanding developments down the value chain in the relevant product silos. Then managers could be set ‘stretch targets’ to ensure they met expectations for revenue and profit growth. But today, as the blog has […]
Wishful thinking dominates US government economic forecasts
350k Americans are now reaching the age of 65 each month until 2030. But according to government forecasts, this surge in the retirement population will have little impact on economic growth. That’s the view of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which has just given its latest forecast for the impact of the ageing […]
Water, Food and Ageing top global societal risks
The latest Global Risks report from the World Economic Forum warns that its highlighted “societal risks all have a relatively high likelihood of occurring in the next 10 years”. As the chart above shows, the top 3 risks are those also highlighted in ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’: • Water supply crises are the […]
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